NBA games

PHX @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
130–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX30323632130
GS27242826105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home GS
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 34 31 5 11
Bradley Beal 28 21 2 2
Kevin Durant S 29 19 6 3
Nick Richards S 24 14 16 1
Grayson Allen 23 11 6 7
Mason Plumlee 15 10 6 3
Royce O'Neale 24 6 2 4
Tyus Jones S 26 6 0 6
Ryan Dunn S 13 4 1 2
Bol Bol 5 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moses Moody 24 17 6 1
Andrew Wiggins S 31 17 8 6
Stephen Curry S 31 14 3 3
Brandin Podziemski 22 14 3 3
Buddy Hield S 19 13 3 2
Quinten Post S 19 9 8 2
Dennis Schroder 21 5 6 5
Gui Santos 19 5 1 2
Kyle Anderson 12 4 2 1
Gary Payton II S 12 3 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
16%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
5 Nick Richards PHX
9%
6 Buddy Hield GS
8%
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
8%
8 Gary Payton II GS
7%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
10 Quinten Post GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
23%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 26.4 4.5 6.3
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.2 5.8 4.8
3 Stephen Curry GS 23.1 4.4 6.4
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 19.4 5.0 2.5
5 Bradley Beal PHX 16.4 3.6 4.1
6 Dennis Schroder GS 12.9 2.8 4.2
7 Brandin Podziemski GS 11.2 3.9 2.9
8 Grayson Allen PHX 10.7 3.6 1.9
9 Moses Moody GS 10.0 3.4 1.8
10 Tyus Jones PHX 9.9 2.6 5.3
11 Buddy Hield GS 9.7 3.2 2.3
12 Nick Richards PHX 9.3 8.3 1.3
13 Ryan Dunn PHX 8.6 4.5 1.2
14 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 7.4 6.9 2.4
15 Gui Santos GS 7.2 4.5 1.7
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.7 3.5 1.7
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.3 7.4 1.7
18 Kyle Anderson GS 6.1 3.8 1.9
19 Kevon Looney GS 6.1 6.8 1.6
20 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.0 3.6 1.1
21 Quinten Post GS 6.0 2.2 1.3
22 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.7 5.5 1.3
23 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.6 1.2 1.6
24 Lindy Waters III GS 4.5 2.3 0.7
25 Monte Morris PHX 4.0 1.2 1.1
26 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.4 2.6 0.9
27 Bol Bol PHX 2.5 1.2 0.4
28 Damion Lee PHX 2.5 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.