NBA games

MIL @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
118–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL35363017118
SA35354529144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home SA
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 34 35 14 6
Damian Lillard S 37 22 3 7
Khris Middleton 23 21 4 2
Taurean Prince S 30 13 5 3
Pat Connaughton 13 8 2 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 15 7 4 0
Brook Lopez S 24 6 5 3
Stanley Umude 4 2 1 0
Gary Trent Jr. 24 2 2 0
Chris Livingston 4 2 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 31 30 14 1
Keldon Johnson 25 24 4 2
Stephon Castle S 30 20 8 6
Harrison Barnes S 25 16 6 2
Devin Vassell S 27 12 2 3
Chris Paul S 26 12 5 9
Tre Jones 17 9 0 7
Julian Champagnie 18 6 5 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 4 5 0 0
Zach Collins 4 3 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Andre Jackson Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Andre Jackson Jr. makes driving layup (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
12%
3 Harrison Barnes SA
12%
4 Stephon Castle SA
10%
5 Devin Vassell SA
10%
6 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
8 Chris Paul SA
8%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
8%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
33%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.4 11.8 7.2
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 28.2 12.1 4.0
3 Damian Lillard MIL 26.6 5.2 7.2
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.5 4.7 3.9
5 Stephon Castle SA 16.7 3.3 3.7
6 Harrison Barnes SA 15.9 4.2 2.9
7 Brook Lopez MIL 11.9 5.0 2.0
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.7 6.1 2.1
9 Keldon Johnson SA 10.5 4.1 1.4
10 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.4 2.7 1.6
11 Khris Middleton MIL 10.3 3.3 3.8
12 Chris Paul SA 10.3 3.3 6.6
13 Taurean Prince MIL 8.1 2.9 2.3
14 Julian Champagnie SA 6.7 2.8 1.3
15 AJ Green MIL 6.2 2.2 1.1
16 Tre Jones SA 6.1 2.1 2.8
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.6 1.8 1.2
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 5.2 3.3 1.4
19 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.2 2.4 1.7
20 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.1 2.1 1.0
21 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.2 1.5 0.6
22 Charles Bassey SA 2.7 3.4 0.4
23 Delon Wright MIL 2.6 1.2 1.3
24 Chris Livingston MIL 2.5 1.5 0.6
25 Stanley Umude MIL 2.5 1.4 0.6
26 Zach Collins SA 2.3 1.7 0.6
27 Blake Wesley SA 2.2 1.0 2.0
28 Malaki Branham SA 1.9 0.7 0.5
29 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.9 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.