NBA games

BOS @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
118–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS31283227118
NO34193330116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home NO
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 28 6 4
Jayson Tatum S 39 27 6 10
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 16 5 6
Derrick White S 34 16 4 3
Luke Kornet 16 11 2 3
Sam Hauser 14 9 4 1
Jrue Holiday S 30 4 3 5
Al Horford 25 4 4 0
Payton Pritchard 17 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 39 40 5 4
Jose Alvarado 34 20 3 6
CJ McCollum S 34 17 2 1
Brandon Boston 30 10 5 2
Karlo Matkovic 18 7 4 1
Javonte Green S 29 6 6 2
Yves Missi S 30 6 13 0
Dejounte Murray S 8 4 5 0
Jamal Cain 5 3 0 0
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 13 3 5 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Layup (2 pts) · 11:21 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes driving layup (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
17%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
17%
3 CJ McCollum NO
14%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
6 Yves Missi NO
8%
7 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
38%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 23.8 7.5 5.7
2 Trey Murphy III NO 23.3 6.1 3.7
3 Dejounte Murray NO 22.7 6.5 7.1
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.4 6.4 5.6
5 CJ McCollum NO 21.5 4.3 4.1
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.6 8.1 2.6
7 Derrick White BOS 12.8 4.1 3.2
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 11.7 3.6 3.8
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 10.6 2.3 1.3
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.1 4.8 2.7
11 Brandon Boston NO 7.6 2.7 1.1
12 Jose Alvarado NO 7.6 2.2 3.7
13 Yves Missi NO 6.7 6.6 1.2
14 Al Horford BOS 6.4 5.0 1.3
15 Javonte Green NO 6.4 4.3 1.4
16 Luke Kornet BOS 6.1 5.7 1.3
17 Daniel Theis NO 5.9 4.6 1.6
18 Sam Hauser BOS 5.2 2.3 0.7
19 Neemias Queta BOS 4.0 2.2 0.8
20 Drew Peterson BOS 3.9 2.4 0.8
21 Jaden Springer BOS 3.5 1.4 0.7
22 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.2 4.1 1.0
23 Jamal Cain NO 2.9 2.5 0.6
24 Jordan Walsh BOS 2.7 1.2 0.6
25 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.7 0.9 0.3
26 Karlo Matkovic NO 1.5 2.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.