NBA games

CHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
122–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI30253334122
TOR27232432106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home TOR
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 33 25 4 6
Nikola Vucevic S 31 21 12 3
Jalen Smith 17 17 5 1
Josh Giddey S 31 15 7 6
Matas Buzelis 26 12 7 0
Patrick Williams 29 11 9 1
Dalen Terry 13 10 1 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 35 6 4 8
Lonzo Ball S 25 5 3 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 33 20 10 5
RJ Barrett S 31 19 9 3
Immanuel Quickley S 15 14 4 2
Ja'Kobe Walter 18 14 4 2
Gradey Dick S 29 13 2 1
Davion Mitchell 23 9 1 2
Jakob Poeltl S 34 8 9 6
Ochai Agbaji 22 4 2 1
Orlando Robinson 14 3 3 2
Garrett Temple 3 2 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 21-foot two point shot (Ayo Dosunmu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
2 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR
9%
6 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
7%
9 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
39%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.8 8.7 6.6
2 RJ Barrett TOR 20.5 6.0 5.6
3 Coby White CHI 19.7 3.3 4.9
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.5 10.3 4.2
5 Immanuel Quickley TOR 16.5 2.7 6.2
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.2 10.4 3.6
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.0 3.5 3.8
8 Gradey Dick TOR 11.8 2.8 2.0
9 Josh Giddey CHI 11.6 7.7 5.8
10 Chris Boucher TOR 10.6 4.7 1.2
11 Bruce Brown TOR 10.4 4.8 2.2
12 Lonzo Ball CHI 9.7 3.4 3.1
13 Patrick Williams CHI 9.7 3.8 2.0
14 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.8 2.3 4.8
15 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.5 3.2 1.5
16 Jalen Smith CHI 6.9 5.5 0.8
17 Kelly Olynyk TOR 5.8 2.3 2.0
18 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.6 3.2 0.6
19 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 5.1 1.7 1.3
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.5 1.3 0.9
21 Julian Phillips CHI 4.2 2.3 0.6
22 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.2 1.3 1.0
23 Orlando Robinson TOR 3.7 2.5 1.0
24 Dalen Terry CHI 3.6 1.7 1.3
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.3 0.8
26 Chris Duarte CHI 1.3 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.