NBA games

DEN @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
137–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN38353034137
PHI36333134134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home PHI
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 40 31 6 11
Nikola Jokic S 37 28 9 13
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 24 6 0
Julian Strawther 19 18 2 0
Christian Braun 31 15 5 2
Aaron Gordon S 32 11 3 3
Peyton Watson 27 6 4 3
Russell Westbrook S 25 4 0 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 39 42 2 9
Guerschon Yabusele S 36 28 7 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 41 27 7 5
Eric Gordon S 29 11 0 2
Ricky Council IV 15 10 2 1
Justin Edwards S 32 9 5 4
Kyle Lowry 20 3 1 4
Adem Bona 12 2 1 0
Reggie Jackson 16 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
13%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
3 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
4 Russell Westbrook DEN
9%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
7 Aaron Gordon DEN
7%
8 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
7%
9 Caleb Martin PHI
7%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
45%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 30.5 3.7 7.2
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.9 11.9 10.7
3 Jamal Murray DEN 24.6 4.4 5.9
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.1 6.9 3.0
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 16.4 6.2 5.5
6 Christian Braun DEN 15.9 4.8 1.8
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 14.3 6.0 3.7
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 13.8 4.8 1.6
9 Eric Gordon PHI 11.6 2.1 2.7
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 11.0 3.5 1.9
11 Justin Edwards PHI 11.0 3.4 2.0
12 Ricky Council IV PHI 9.5 3.0 1.7
13 Caleb Martin PHI 8.7 3.4 1.8
14 Julian Strawther DEN 7.8 2.0 1.6
15 Peyton Watson DEN 6.3 3.7 1.4
16 Adem Bona PHI 5.8 4.4 0.9
17 Reggie Jackson PHI 5.7 1.7 1.2
18 Kyle Lowry PHI 5.2 2.2 2.8
19 Andre Drummond PHI 4.8 5.3 0.7
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.3 4.9 0.7
21 Dario Saric DEN 4.1 3.0 1.5
22 Pete Nance PHI 3.2 1.5 0.8
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.9 0.9 0.9
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.8 0.9 0.4
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.6 0.9 0.3
26 PJ Hall DEN 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.