NBA games

DAL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
102117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL32262717102
DET28343124117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home DET
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyrie Irving S 37 28 6 3
P.J. Washington S 36 22 13 1
Daniel Gafford S 33 16 10 3
Klay Thompson S 26 13 4 4
Naji Marshall 22 7 3 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 23 5 1 4
Kylor Kelley 8 4 2 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 14 4 3 2
Dante Exum 14 3 2 1
Kessler Edwards 10 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 36 40 6 4
Tobias Harris S 31 17 3 1
Jalen Duren S 30 16 13 5
Marcus Sasser 20 10 2 4
Malik Beasley 22 9 2 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 28 9 5 1
Paul Reed 18 6 7 2
Ronald Holland II 14 4 3 0
Simone Fontecchio 16 4 2 1
Ausar Thompson S 23 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 14-foot jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
15%
2 Daniel Gafford DAL
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
4 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Tobias Harris DET
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
8 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
54%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.3 5.9 9.6
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 25.3 4.6 4.7
3 P.J. Washington DAL 19.6 9.8 3.8
4 Daniel Gafford DAL 17.3 9.7 2.1
5 Malik Beasley DET 16.0 3.1 2.1
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 13.9 3.5 4.5
7 Jalen Duren DET 13.8 11.7 2.1
8 Tobias Harris DET 12.3 5.0 2.3
9 Klay Thompson DAL 12.1 3.3 2.1
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 11.7 3.1 1.8
11 Naji Marshall DAL 11.0 3.9 3.5
12 Quentin Grimes DAL 10.8 3.0 2.7
13 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.8 2.2 1.9
14 Ausar Thompson DET 9.2 5.0 1.7
15 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.3 2.9 0.9
16 Marcus Sasser DET 6.1 1.8 2.1
17 Ronald Holland II DET 6.0 2.4 1.1
18 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.6 2.8 1.1
19 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.4 5.6 1.4
20 Paul Reed DET 3.3 2.1 0.9
21 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.2 1.6 1.0
22 Kessler Edwards DAL 3.1 2.4 0.8
23 Markieff Morris DAL 2.3 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.