NBA games

LAC @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
112–104
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC23303425112
CHA23252927104

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home CHA
65% 35%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Norman Powell S 36 27 3 4
Kawhi Leonard S 28 21 9 2
James Harden S 37 14 5 10
Ivica Zubac S 32 14 11 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 12 8 3
Amir Coffey 24 10 1 2
Kevin Porter Jr. 19 7 4 3
Terance Mann 23 5 3 1
Kobe Brown 7 2 1 0
Jordan Miller 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 38 27 9 6
Vasilije Micic S 31 20 2 4
Moussa Diabate 32 11 14 0
Josh Green S 37 10 4 1
KJ Simpson 25 9 1 5
Josh Okogie 14 8 2 0
Nick Smith Jr. S 26 8 2 1
Seth Curry 11 7 1 0
Taj Gibson S 16 4 7 0
DaQuan Jeffries 10 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nick Smith Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Nick Smith Jr. makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Vasilije Micic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
2 Miles Bridges CHA
11%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
4 James Harden LAC
9%
5 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
9%
6 Norman Powell LAC
8%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
8 Josh Green CHA
7%
9 Vasilije Micic CHA
7%
10 Josh Okogie CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
24%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 James Harden LAC 24.2 4.9 9.5
2 Norman Powell LAC 23.6 4.6 2.4
3 Miles Bridges CHA 21.4 6.8 3.9
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 16.2 4.3 2.7
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.6 12.0 2.7
6 Grant Williams CHA 12.2 6.0 2.0
7 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.1 4.9 1.4
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 10.1 3.1 2.8
9 Amir Coffey LAC 9.5 2.6 1.3
10 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.0 3.1 2.5
11 Seth Curry CHA 7.7 1.8 1.0
12 Vasilije Micic CHA 7.5 2.4 3.2
13 Josh Green CHA 7.2 2.9 1.2
14 Josh Okogie CHA 6.2 2.7 1.2
15 Terance Mann LAC 5.9 2.5 1.4
16 Bones Hyland LAC 5.7 1.3 1.9
17 Mo Bamba LAC 5.2 5.3 0.7
18 KJ Simpson CHA 5.2 2.3 1.7
19 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 5.1 2.8 0.9
20 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.8 1.3 1.0
21 Moussa Diabate CHA 4.7 4.3 0.8
22 Kobe Brown LAC 3.8 2.6 0.8
23 Jordan Miller LAC 3.6 1.9 1.0
24 Taj Gibson CHA 2.2 2.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.