NBA games

ORL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
90–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL3518201790
POR28342928119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home POR
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 31 24 3 3
Paolo Banchero S 33 21 6 3
Cole Anthony 24 16 1 2
Wendell Carter Jr. 25 12 7 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 24 4 2 0
Jonathan Isaac 16 4 5 1
Gary Harris 13 3 1 0
Trevelin Queen 6 2 0 0
Caleb Houstan 5 2 1 0
Goga Bitadze S 18 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe 33 23 2 2
Scoot Henderson S 32 23 5 7
Deandre Ayton S 35 22 8 3
Deni Avdija S 25 11 5 5
Dalano Banton 15 11 2 0
Jabari Walker 19 10 4 0
Anfernee Simons S 21 8 2 3
Toumani Camara S 35 7 5 2
Rayan Rupert 4 3 1 0
Bryce McGowens 3 1 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paolo Banchero · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Paolo Banchero makes 13-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Deni Avdija POR
12%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
11%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
6 Toumani Camara POR
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Anthony Black ORL
8%
9 Anfernee Simons POR
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
28%
Jumper
18%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 26.2 5.2 5.5
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 24.0 7.5 4.9
3 Deni Avdija POR 20.9 7.7 4.5
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.6 4.8 3.5
5 Anfernee Simons POR 18.6 3.2 3.8
6 Scoot Henderson POR 17.8 3.7 5.8
7 Shaedon Sharpe POR 16.7 4.5 2.6
8 Cole Anthony ORL 15.6 4.8 3.6
9 Deandre Ayton POR 12.8 10.6 1.6
10 Anthony Black ORL 12.7 3.3 3.3
11 Toumani Camara POR 12.6 5.8 2.3
12 Goga Bitadze ORL 10.7 8.0 3.0
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.2 7.6 2.5
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.1 2.1 1.7
15 Tristan da Silva ORL 9.2 4.5 1.8
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.3 5.6 0.6
17 Dalano Banton POR 6.1 1.7 1.1
18 Donovan Clingan POR 5.8 6.8 1.3
19 Kris Murray POR 5.4 2.3 1.1
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.1 1.7 0.9
21 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.5 2.3 1.3
22 Jett Howard ORL 4.5 1.3 0.8
23 Robert Williams III POR 3.6 5.4 0.6
24 Duop Reath POR 3.5 1.4 0.7
25 Jabari Walker POR 3.1 2.5 0.5
26 Gary Harris ORL 2.8 0.9 0.5
27 Taze Moore POR 2.7 1.8 0.6
28 Cory Joseph ORL 2.3 0.7 0.8
29 Bryce McGowens POR 2.3 1.0 0.5
30 Rayan Rupert POR 2.3 1.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.