NBA games

MIN @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
138–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN27304437138
UTAH31222238113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home UTAH
64% 36%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 36 6 11
Rob Dillingham 23 19 0 8
Rudy Gobert S 34 16 9 5
Luka Garza 14 16 4 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 32 15 4 5
Naz Reid 28 12 4 4
Jaylen Clark 17 6 3 2
Julius Randle S 10 6 1 1
Leonard Miller 4 6 3 0
Jaden McDaniels S 31 4 4 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keyonte George 27 23 1 3
Collin Sexton S 30 19 3 5
John Collins S 28 16 5 1
Jordan Clarkson 25 16 0 3
Lauri Markkanen S 31 15 2 0
Isaiah Collier S 30 11 2 7
Drew Eubanks 13 6 0 2
Brice Sensabaugh 15 3 1 0
Kyle Filipowski 14 2 1 0
Walker Kessler S 27 2 8 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 28-foot three point shot (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
17%
2 Julius Randle MIN
11%
3 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
4 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
5 John Collins UTAH
8%
6 Collin Sexton UTAH
8%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
8 Rudy Gobert MIN
7%
9 Drew Eubanks UTAH
6%
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
41%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
8%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.8 5.8 6.7
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.1 3.8 5.0
3 Julius Randle MIN 20.7 8.5 5.8
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.9 3.4 4.4
5 John Collins UTAH 18.4 7.3 2.6
6 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 18.4 4.9 2.0
7 Keyonte George UTAH 16.9 3.9 5.8
8 Naz Reid MIN 16.4 4.9 2.4
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 14.4 7.2 2.2
10 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 14.3 3.2 1.9
11 Isaiah Collier UTAH 13.6 4.2 7.9
12 Walker Kessler UTAH 12.9 11.0 1.3
13 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.0 8.7 1.9
14 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 10.9 3.1 2.0
15 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 8.7 3.2 2.0
16 Drew Eubanks UTAH 8.2 6.5 1.3
17 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.2 5.2 1.8
18 Rob Dillingham MIN 6.5 1.8 2.5
19 Patty Mills UTAH 5.7 1.7 1.2
20 Micah Potter UTAH 4.8 2.9 0.9
21 Luka Garza MIN 3.9 1.5 0.7
22 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.4 1.7 0.7
23 Josh Minott MIN 2.9 1.4 0.5
24 Leonard Miller MIN 2.6 2.3 0.4
25 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.9 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.