NBA games

HOU @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
119–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU38283023119
MEM33233628120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home MEM
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 39 25 6 5
Dillon Brooks S 30 22 2 0
Amen Thompson S 38 21 7 4
Fred VanVleet S 36 13 1 5
Tari Eason 30 13 12 0
Steven Adams S 23 11 10 3
Jock Landale 16 8 3 2
Cam Whitmore 17 5 2 2
Jae'Sean Tate 11 1 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 40 24 12 6
Luke Kennard S 33 22 1 2
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 31 21 4 4
Santi Aldama 26 15 5 1
Brandon Clarke 31 13 5 0
Jaylen Wells S 30 11 3 3
Jake LaRavia 10 5 2 0
Zach Edey S 17 5 2 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 12 4 3 5
GG Jackson 9 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Steven Adams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Steven Adams makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
13%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
5 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
6 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
7 Zach Edey MEM
8%
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
28%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 24.9 4.1 4.3
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.3 10.5 5.7
3 Desmond Bane MEM 22.3 4.4 6.4
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 22.1 5.9 2.9
5 Amen Thompson HOU 19.8 10.3 5.0
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.5 3.3 6.5
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.6 3.2 1.9
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.4 5.1 1.6
9 Luke Kennard MEM 11.7 3.0 3.5
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 10.7 2.3 1.5
11 Cam Whitmore HOU 10.5 4.0 1.6
12 Tari Eason HOU 10.4 5.2 1.5
13 Santi Aldama MEM 9.2 4.6 1.4
14 Brandon Clarke MEM 7.7 4.3 1.3
15 GG Jackson MEM 7.3 2.8 1.0
16 Zach Edey MEM 7.2 6.9 1.1
17 Jake LaRavia MEM 6.1 3.4 2.0
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.6 2.1 1.0
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 5.3 1.4 1.3
20 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 5.3 2.5 2.9
21 Steven Adams HOU 4.5 6.1 1.1
22 John Konchar MEM 4.4 5.1 1.0
23 Jay Huff MEM 4.2 1.5 0.6
24 Jeff Green HOU 3.5 1.1 0.4
25 Jock Landale HOU 2.9 2.4 0.7
26 Nate Williams HOU 2.6 0.6 0.5
27 Reed Sheppard HOU 2.1 1.4 0.6
28 Yuki Kawamura MEM 1.7 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.