NBA games

ATL @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
115–137
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL29342131115
CLE39323927137

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home CLE
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zaccharie Risacher S 25 30 1 1
De'Andre Hunter 31 25 5 2
Trae Young S 32 15 1 10
Onyeka Okongwu S 28 14 7 4
Mouhamed Gueye S 16 8 2 1
Dyson Daniels S 30 7 7 5
Garrison Mathews 17 6 5 0
Vit Krejci 21 6 1 0
Keaton Wallace 16 2 0 3
Dominick Barlow 5 2 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 30 26 2 7
Donovan Mitchell S 27 24 1 6
Ty Jerome 26 20 2 6
Evan Mobley S 27 16 10 4
Jaylon Tyson 17 15 5 0
Max Strus S 21 11 5 3
Georges Niang 18 10 3 0
Jarrett Allen S 31 9 15 2
Sam Merrill 24 4 3 4
Craig Porter Jr. 9 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mouhamed Gueye · Layup (2 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"Mouhamed Gueye makes 6-foot layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
11%
2 Donovan Mitchell CLE
9%
3 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
4 Dyson Daniels ATL
9%
5 Darius Garland CLE
9%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
8%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
8%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
7%
9 Mouhamed Gueye ATL
6%
10 Vit Krejci ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
51%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.5 4.4 5.1
2 Darius Garland CLE 26.2 3.2 7.5
3 Trae Young ATL 23.4 3.5 11.0
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.6 9.9 2.8
5 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.5 6.3 4.3
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.9 3.3 2.0
7 Ty Jerome CLE 14.9 3.3 3.1
8 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 14.7 10.0 3.4
9 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.9 9.0 2.1
10 Vit Krejci ATL 11.7 3.3 4.4
11 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 10.6 4.2 1.7
12 Max Strus CLE 8.7 4.3 2.6
13 Georges Niang CLE 8.6 3.7 1.2
14 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 8.2 5.3 1.5
15 Keaton Wallace ATL 7.7 2.3 3.3
16 Garrison Mathews ATL 5.8 1.8 1.1
17 Sam Merrill CLE 5.1 1.8 1.3
18 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.7 3.2 0.8
19 David Roddy ATL 4.6 2.8 1.1
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.6 2.3 1.1
21 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 3.6 1.6 0.7
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.9 1.3 0.6
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 2.9 0.9
24 Emoni Bates CLE 2.5 1.1 0.6
25 JT Thor CLE 2.5 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.