NBA games

LAL @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
134–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL42362729134
WSH2916252696

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home WSH
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 27 24 3 11
Rui Hachimura S 26 22 4 0
Shake Milton 28 21 4 4
Austin Reaves S 30 17 6 5
Max Christie S 30 13 4 3
Dalton Knecht 22 10 1 0
Jaxson Hayes S 25 10 10 2
Bronny James 12 5 2 2
Christian Koloko 7 4 2 1
Trey Jemison III 18 4 5 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 25 19 5 2
Kyle Kuzma S 21 13 3 1
Corey Kispert 18 11 3 0
Tristan Vukcevic 12 9 3 1
Jared Butler 17 8 0 3
Kyshawn George S 27 6 4 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 26 6 3 0
Richaun Holmes 15 6 5 1
Justin Champagnie 16 6 3 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 18 5 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaxson Hayes · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jaxson Hayes makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Austin Reaves LAL
13%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
13%
4 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
11%
5 Max Christie LAL
11%
6 Jonas Valanciunas WSH
11%
7 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
9%
9 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
10 Jaxson Hayes LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
33%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.7 8.0 10.2
2 Austin Reaves LAL 20.4 4.2 6.9
3 Jordan Poole WSH 19.1 4.1 5.6
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH 16.2 6.4 3.7
5 Rui Hachimura LAL 13.2 5.1 1.8
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.1 4.3 3.0
7 Max Christie LAL 10.9 3.6 2.0
8 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.2 7.4 1.8
9 Corey Kispert WSH 10.2 2.8 1.4
10 Kyshawn George WSH 9.5 2.6 2.7
11 Bub Carrington WSH 9.0 3.5 2.6
12 Dalton Knecht LAL 8.4 2.6 1.0
13 Jared Butler WSH 6.8 1.9 2.1
14 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.9 4.1 0.9
15 Cam Reddish LAL 4.7 2.4 1.0
16 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.6 2.5 0.9
17 Shake Milton LAL 4.4 1.9 1.9
18 Christian Koloko LAL 3.6 3.2 0.9
19 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.5 3.1 0.6
20 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.0 1.4 0.6
21 Bronny James LAL 2.9 1.7 0.6
22 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.9 1.5 0.6
23 Johnny Davis WSH 2.5 1.2 0.5
24 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 1.1 0.5
25 Trey Jemison III LAL 2.1 2.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.