NBA games

OKC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
109–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC34242625109
GS20283632116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home GS
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 39 52 3 4
Jalen Williams S 34 26 7 2
Isaiah Joe 29 17 2 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 31 4 18 6
Luguentz Dort S 36 4 6 2
Cason Wallace S 26 2 3 2
Aaron Wiggins 14 2 2 1
Jaylin Williams 14 2 6 2
Kenrich Williams 9 0 1 0
Ousmane Dieng 7 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 38 27 4 2
Stephen Curry S 33 21 1 4
Kevon Looney 25 18 3 2
Gary Payton II S 25 15 9 3
Brandin Podziemski 18 11 4 3
Dennis Schroder 26 9 4 7
Moses Moody 17 5 2 0
Buddy Hield S 15 5 5 4
Gui Santos 19 3 7 2
Kyle Anderson 15 2 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
14%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
14%
3 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
9%
5 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
6 Moses Moody GS
7%
7 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
7%
8 Dennis Schroder GS
7%
9 Cason Wallace OKC
7%
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
22%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.7 4.6 6.9
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.9 4.8 6.0
3 Stephen Curry GS 22.6 4.7 6.0
4 Andrew Wiggins GS 17.6 5.0 2.4
5 Dennis Schroder GS 13.6 2.5 4.2
6 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 11.4 10.8 4.8
7 Cason Wallace OKC 10.8 3.9 2.6
8 Isaiah Joe OKC 10.5 2.7 1.6
9 Buddy Hield GS 10.2 3.1 2.3
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 10.1 4.0 1.9
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 10.0 3.7 2.7
12 Luguentz Dort OKC 9.7 3.5 2.0
13 Moses Moody GS 9.4 3.3 1.8
14 Gui Santos GS 7.9 4.0 1.8
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.9 5.5 1.9
16 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 6.5 7.3 1.7
17 Kyle Anderson GS 6.3 3.4 1.9
18 Alex Caruso OKC 6.1 2.6 2.6
19 Quinten Post GS 5.8 2.2 1.3
20 Kevon Looney GS 5.7 6.8 1.9
21 Gary Payton II GS 5.6 2.8 1.4
22 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.5 2.9 0.8
23 Lindy Waters III GS 4.5 2.3 0.7
24 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.3 1.4 0.7
25 Branden Carlson OKC 3.3 1.4 0.5
26 Alex Ducas OKC 1.6 0.6 0.3
27 Adam Flagler OKC 1.5 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.