NBA games

MIN @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
121–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN22332640121
PHX29301836113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home PHX
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 33 7 5
Julius Randle S 35 28 7 6
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 35 23 4 1
Jaden McDaniels S 37 14 6 3
Rob Dillingham 15 8 2 3
Mike Conley S 30 6 0 6
Rudy Gobert S 34 4 5 1
Luka Garza 4 3 0 0
Jaylen Clark 10 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 40 33 2 7
Devin Booker S 41 28 4 8
Bradley Beal 25 17 3 6
Grayson Allen 29 11 7 1
Nick Richards S 25 7 5 1
Ryan Dunn 9 5 4 2
Tyus Jones S 24 5 3 3
Royce O'Neale S 32 4 5 1
Mason Plumlee 15 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Anthony Edwards · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Anthony Edwards makes driving layup (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Devin Booker PHX
12%
3 Julius Randle MIN
11%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
6 Nick Richards PHX
8%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
8 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
9 Tyus Jones PHX
7%
10 Royce O'Neale PHX
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
47%
Jumper
12%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.3 5.4 6.5
2 Devin Booker PHX 27.2 4.4 6.6
3 Kevin Durant PHX 25.5 6.0 4.9
4 Julius Randle MIN 19.8 8.6 5.0
5 Bradley Beal PHX 14.8 3.5 3.9
6 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.0 7.5 1.9
7 Rudy Gobert MIN 11.6 9.0 1.7
8 Grayson Allen PHX 11.5 3.4 1.9
9 Tyus Jones PHX 10.6 2.6 5.4
10 Nick Richards PHX 9.0 7.9 1.2
11 Mike Conley MIN 8.4 2.8 3.6
12 Ryan Dunn PHX 8.1 4.4 1.0
13 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 7.2 6.8 2.4
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.6 3.4 1.9
15 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.4 3.7 1.2
16 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.8 1.7 2.1
17 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.6 5.9 1.7
18 Collin Gillespie PHX 4.6 1.2 1.6
19 Monte Morris PHX 4.0 1.1 1.0
20 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.3 2.6 0.9
21 Josh Minott MIN 3.2 1.6 0.5
22 Luka Garza MIN 2.7 1.0 0.3
23 Leonard Miller MIN 2.5 2.4 0.3
24 Bol Bol PHX 2.5 1.2 0.3
25 Damion Lee PHX 2.5 0.8 0.6
26 Jaylen Clark MIN 2.4 1.2 0.3
27 Joe Ingles MIN 1.6 0.9 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.