NBA games

LAC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
128–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC30352934128
SA32283224116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home SA
84% 16%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 29 27 6 7
Norman Powell S 37 27 8 1
Ivica Zubac S 34 21 22 3
James Harden S 37 21 3 11
Nicolas Batum 17 12 5 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 18 9 4 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 33 7 7 1
Terance Mann 11 2 1 1
Kobe Brown 1 2 0 0
Jordan Miller 1 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 35 23 12 4
Stephon Castle S 33 20 3 0
Devin Vassell S 32 19 3 3
Harrison Barnes S 30 15 3 7
Tre Jones 12 9 1 0
Keldon Johnson 25 9 2 1
Chris Paul S 27 7 1 7
Jeremy Sochan 26 7 0 4
Julian Champagnie 14 5 2 1
Sandro Mamukelashvili 4 2 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chris Paul · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Chris Paul makes 16-foot pullup jump shot (Harrison Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
15%
2 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
4 Harrison Barnes SA
10%
5 Norman Powell LAC
10%
6 James Harden LAC
10%
7 Stephon Castle SA
9%
8 Devin Vassell SA
8%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
10 Chris Paul SA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
20%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Victor Wembanyama SA 29.4 12.9 4.4
2 James Harden LAC 23.9 5.6 10.3
3 Norman Powell LAC 23.4 4.4 2.4
4 Devin Vassell SA 18.8 4.9 3.8
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 16.0 11.6 3.0
6 Stephon Castle SA 15.3 3.2 3.8
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC 15.1 4.0 2.4
8 Harrison Barnes SA 15.0 4.2 2.4
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.9 4.6 1.3
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.7 6.4 1.9
11 Chris Paul SA 10.3 3.5 6.8
12 Amir Coffey LAC 10.2 2.6 1.5
13 Keldon Johnson SA 10.2 4.1 1.2
14 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 8.0 3.2 3.4
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.5 2.7 1.6
16 Julian Champagnie SA 6.5 2.4 0.9
17 Bones Hyland LAC 6.2 1.4 2.0
18 Mo Bamba LAC 5.9 5.4 0.9
19 Tre Jones SA 5.2 1.8 2.8
20 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.0 3.0 1.0
21 Kobe Brown LAC 3.4 2.4 0.9
22 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.9 1.6 0.7
23 Jordan Miller LAC 2.7 1.4 0.8
24 Charles Bassey SA 2.6 3.4 0.3
25 Zach Collins SA 2.2 1.6 0.5
26 Blake Wesley SA 2.2 1.0 1.9
27 Malaki Branham SA 1.7 0.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.