NBA games

DAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
137–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL35224040137
NO32313043136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home NO
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 38 25 14 8
Kyrie Irving S 39 25 9 6
Daniel Gafford S 34 22 12 3
Klay Thompson S 29 20 4 1
Quentin Grimes 20 17 1 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 28 11 4 7
Jaden Hardy 6 6 1 0
Naji Marshall 15 5 0 2
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 15 4 3 1
Kessler Edwards 15 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trey Murphy III S 39 32 6 4
Zion Williamson S 28 29 6 7
Dejounte Murray S 33 27 5 6
CJ McCollum S 36 23 3 8
Brandon Boston 21 12 1 0
Jose Alvarado 15 11 0 3
Daniel Theis 18 2 5 1
Yves Missi S 29 0 7 1
Javonte Green 20 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Trey Murphy III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
12%
3 Trey Murphy III NO
11%
4 CJ McCollum NO
10%
5 P.J. Washington DAL
10%
6 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
7 Daniel Gafford DAL
10%
8 Yves Missi NO
8%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
8%
10 Klay Thompson DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
22%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 25.2 9.4 5.2
2 Kyrie Irving DAL 24.3 4.3 4.6
3 Dejounte Murray NO 24.0 6.4 7.2
4 Trey Murphy III NO 22.8 6.0 3.7
5 CJ McCollum NO 21.9 4.3 3.8
6 P.J. Washington DAL 17.4 10.0 3.1
7 Daniel Gafford DAL 15.2 9.0 2.1
8 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 14.8 3.6 4.4
9 Klay Thompson DAL 12.0 3.5 2.5
10 Quentin Grimes DAL 11.7 3.7 3.2
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.5 2.5 1.6
12 Jaden Hardy DAL 11.1 2.6 2.3
13 Naji Marshall DAL 9.7 3.7 3.0
14 Yves Missi NO 8.5 7.0 1.3
15 Javonte Green NO 8.1 4.9 1.4
16 Jose Alvarado NO 8.1 2.4 3.8
17 Daniel Theis NO 6.2 4.5 1.7
18 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 6.0 3.0 0.9
19 Brandon Boston NO 5.4 2.2 0.9
20 Brandon Williams DAL 3.7 1.4 1.3
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 3.5 4.3 1.1
22 Jamal Cain NO 3.4 2.6 0.7
23 Kessler Edwards DAL 3.0 2.2 0.7
24 Markieff Morris DAL 2.9 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.