NBA games

SAC @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
104–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC30263117104
PHI28322928117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home PHI
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk S 40 21 5 8
De'Aaron Fox S 35 19 8 5
DeMar DeRozan S 38 19 3 3
Keegan Murray S 37 17 8 0
Domantas Sabonis S 40 13 14 11
Keon Ellis 18 6 3 2
Kevin Huerter 10 5 0 1
Trey Lyles 15 4 5 2
Alex Len 4 0 0 1
Devin Carter 3 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 38 30 4 8
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 15 6 3
Eric Gordon S 22 14 1 2
Ricky Council IV 29 13 1 0
Kyle Lowry 26 13 5 8
Justin Edwards S 23 9 1 3
Guerschon Yabusele S 28 9 6 3
Reggie Jackson 17 9 4 2
Adem Bona 19 5 7 1
Pete Nance 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Monk · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Malik Monk makes 28-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
14%
2 Malik Monk SAC
11%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
10%
4 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
6 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
7%
7 Andre Drummond PHI
7%
8 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
9 Tyrese Maxey PHI
7%
10 Justin Edwards PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
30%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 29.1 3.9 7.1
2 Malik Monk SAC 23.9 4.2 8.4
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.7 4.3 3.4
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC 22.0 4.7 6.2
5 Domantas Sabonis SAC 21.2 12.6 9.9
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.7 7.3 2.7
7 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 14.4 6.6 3.2
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.5 6.4 1.8
9 Eric Gordon PHI 11.5 2.3 2.4
10 Justin Edwards PHI 10.5 3.9 1.7
11 Keon Ellis SAC 9.8 3.2 1.7
12 Ricky Council IV PHI 9.0 3.4 1.8
13 Caleb Martin PHI 8.8 3.5 1.8
14 Trey Lyles SAC 6.3 5.2 1.2
15 Adem Bona PHI 5.4 4.6 0.8
16 Reggie Jackson PHI 5.1 1.7 1.1
17 Andre Drummond PHI 5.0 5.7 0.6
18 Devin Carter SAC 4.6 2.5 1.1
19 Kevin Huerter SAC 4.5 1.1 0.8
20 Kyle Lowry PHI 4.2 2.1 2.1
21 Mason Jones SAC 3.4 2.0 1.4
22 Pete Nance PHI 3.4 1.7 0.7
23 Alex Len SAC 2.8 2.6 0.8
24 Jae Crowder SAC 2.7 1.6 0.4
25 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.9 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.