NBA games

DEN @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
112–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN27273226112
NY31293329122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home NY
39% 61%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jamal Murray S 37 33 5 6
Nikola Jokic S 33 17 6 6
Aaron Gordon S 30 15 6 1
Russell Westbrook S 37 14 14 4
Christian Braun 29 13 5 1
Michael Porter Jr. S 26 9 3 2
Julian Strawther 19 5 4 0
Peyton Watson 19 4 1 0
DeAndre Jordan 8 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 36 30 4 15
OG Anunoby S 39 23 4 1
Josh Hart S 34 15 5 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 30 14 10 5
Mikal Bridges S 37 13 3 2
Miles McBride 22 12 2 4
Precious Achiuwa 26 8 3 0
Cameron Payne 12 7 3 0
Landry Shamet 5 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 2-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
2 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
3 Russell Westbrook DEN
11%
4 Christian Braun DEN
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
8 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
9 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
10 Josh Hart NY
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
29%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 28.9 11.4 9.9
2 Jalen Brunson NY 27.0 3.3 7.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 24.3 12.3 4.5
4 Jamal Murray DEN 22.3 4.2 5.4
5 Mikal Bridges NY 18.8 3.1 4.2
6 Russell Westbrook DEN 17.3 5.8 5.6
7 OG Anunoby NY 16.6 4.6 2.8
8 Christian Braun DEN 15.6 4.8 1.6
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.5 5.5 1.4
10 Josh Hart NY 14.3 11.1 6.2
11 Aaron Gordon DEN 9.6 3.1 1.8
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.6 2.0 1.5
13 Cameron Payne NY 7.7 1.7 1.8
14 Miles McBride NY 7.6 2.2 2.5
15 Peyton Watson DEN 7.1 4.1 1.7
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.9 4.4 1.2
17 Landry Shamet NY 4.4 1.4 0.7
18 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.1 5.3 0.5
19 Dario Saric DEN 3.9 2.9 1.4
20 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.9 1.9 0.6
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.8 0.9 0.8
22 Jericho Sims NY 2.8 2.6 0.8
23 Matt Ryan NY 2.5 1.2 0.6
24 Tyler Kolek NY 2.5 1.0 1.0
25 Jacob Toppin NY 2.3 1.3 0.6
26 Hunter Tyson DEN 1.7 0.8 0.3
27 Zeke Nnaji DEN 1.4 0.8 0.3
28 PJ Hall DEN 1.4 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.