NBA games

CLE @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
126–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE31283532126
MIA21204322106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home MIA
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 30 34 1 6
Evan Mobley S 31 22 15 2
Ty Jerome 30 20 3 7
Georges Niang 28 15 4 1
Jarrett Allen S 29 12 10 1
Craig Porter Jr. 21 9 4 2
Max Strus S 33 8 3 6
Jaylon Tyson S 30 4 5 4
Tristan Thompson 6 2 2 0
Emoni Bates 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 34 22 5 6
Terry Rozier 33 22 4 4
Bam Adebayo S 38 21 9 3
Duncan Robinson S 30 13 2 3
Haywood Highsmith S 26 12 3 0
Nikola Jovic 29 11 3 5
Kel'el Ware S 29 5 4 3
Josh Christopher 1 0 0 0
Pelle Larsson 14 0 2 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 7 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
16%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
14%
3 Tyler Herro MIA
13%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
10%
6 Kel'el Ware MIA
9%
7 Jarrett Allen CLE
9%
8 Duncan Robinson MIA
7%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
10 Max Strus CLE
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
51%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.1 5.7 6.6
2 Darius Garland CLE 24.6 3.2 7.5
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 23.9 4.7 5.0
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.3 9.1 2.8
5 Bam Adebayo MIA 16.5 10.0 4.9
6 Kel'el Ware MIA 14.9 8.6 1.3
7 Nikola Jovic MIA 14.2 4.7 4.9
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.2 9.7 2.1
9 Ty Jerome CLE 12.9 3.1 2.7
10 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 12.8 4.4 3.4
11 Terry Rozier MIA 12.5 4.0 3.0
12 Duncan Robinson MIA 12.0 3.1 2.8
13 Max Strus CLE 8.5 4.1 2.4
14 Georges Niang CLE 8.2 3.4 1.1
15 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.3 2.6 1.5
16 Josh Richardson MIA 5.3 1.8 1.6
17 Kevin Love MIA 4.9 2.6 1.1
18 Alec Burks MIA 3.7 1.2 0.7
19 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.5 1.4 0.6
20 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.2 2.1 0.8
21 Josh Christopher MIA 3.1 1.0 0.9
22 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.6 1.5 0.6
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.4 3.0 0.9
24 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.0 1.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.