NBA games

CHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
100–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI23282524100
BOS26412926122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home BOS
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Coby White S 31 16 2 3
Patrick Williams 30 16 7 4
Ayo Dosunmu S 32 12 4 4
Matas Buzelis 22 12 4 0
Josh Giddey S 26 10 4 6
Lonzo Ball S 23 9 3 4
Jalen Smith 23 9 11 1
Nikola Vucevic S 25 6 11 2
Julian Phillips 11 5 0 0
Jevon Carter 4 3 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kristaps Porzingis S 33 34 11 3
Jaylen Brown S 36 28 6 6
Derrick White S 40 22 1 5
Jayson Tatum S 32 16 8 5
Payton Pritchard 34 10 2 7
Jrue Holiday S 23 6 7 3
Jaden Springer 20 4 5 2
Luke Kornet 15 2 2 0
Drew Peterson 5 0 2 0
Neemias Queta 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
16%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
4 Coby White CHI
9%
5 Luke Kornet BOS
9%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI
8%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
9 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
10 Derrick White BOS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.5 8.1 6.1
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.9 6.0 5.8
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI 21.1 10.6 4.5
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 20.3 7.6 2.5
5 Coby White CHI 19.8 3.6 5.2
6 Derrick White BOS 12.2 4.1 3.0
7 Payton Pritchard BOS 12.0 3.6 3.4
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 11.8 3.7 3.9
9 Josh Giddey CHI 11.3 8.5 6.0
10 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.9 4.4 3.2
11 Lonzo Ball CHI 9.4 3.5 2.9
12 Patrick Williams CHI 8.2 3.6 1.8
13 Jalen Smith CHI 7.4 5.2 1.0
14 Luke Kornet BOS 7.0 5.9 1.5
15 Al Horford BOS 6.8 4.8 1.4
16 Sam Hauser BOS 5.7 2.4 0.8
17 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.6 3.3 0.6
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.8 2.4 0.9
19 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 4.7 1.4 1.0
20 Drew Peterson BOS 4.0 2.2 1.0
21 Julian Phillips CHI 3.9 2.5 0.5
22 Dalen Terry CHI 3.7 1.8 1.1
23 Jevon Carter CHI 3.6 0.9 0.6
24 Jaden Springer BOS 3.3 1.3 0.8
25 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.3 1.3 0.8
26 Xavier Tillman BOS 2.6 1.3 0.6
27 Chris Duarte CHI 1.4 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.