NBA games

TOR @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
106–82
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR31262326106
WSH1820202482

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home WSH
85% 15%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 29 24 4 4
Jakob Poeltl S 27 12 8 6
Ochai Agbaji S 24 12 3 1
RJ Barrett S 28 11 3 3
Davion Mitchell S 27 10 4 9
Orlando Robinson 21 10 6 0
Bruce Brown 19 10 4 2
Jamal Shead 21 10 2 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 22 4 0 2
Chris Boucher 15 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 34 19 10 1
Justin Champagnie 15 12 6 1
Kyshawn George S 22 10 1 3
Richaun Holmes 16 8 5 3
Corey Kispert 24 8 1 0
Bilal Coulibaly S 25 8 2 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 6 11 1
Bub Carrington 23 3 2 1
Jordan Poole S 29 3 0 2
Tristan Vukcevic 8 3 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes driving layup (Scottie Barnes assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
15%
2 RJ Barrett TOR
15%
3 Jakob Poeltl TOR
13%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
13%
5 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
13%
6 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
7 Kyshawn George WSH
10%
8 Davion Mitchell TOR
10%
9 Chris Boucher TOR
0%
10 Ochai Agbaji TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
26%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.6 8.9 6.7
2 RJ Barrett TOR 21.3 6.4 5.5
3 Jordan Poole WSH 20.7 4.2 5.5
4 Kyle Kuzma WSH 14.8 6.2 3.7
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 14.5 11.3 3.4
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 13.4 4.4 3.4
7 Chris Boucher TOR 11.7 4.9 1.2
8 Bruce Brown TOR 10.6 5.0 2.1
9 Corey Kispert WSH 10.1 2.7 1.6
10 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 9.9 7.5 1.8
11 Kyshawn George WSH 9.8 2.9 2.5
12 Bub Carrington WSH 9.1 3.5 2.9
13 Ochai Agbaji TOR 7.8 3.1 1.5
14 Jamal Shead TOR 7.7 1.8 3.2
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.3 2.2 4.0
16 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.2 2.5 2.2
17 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.8 1.7 1.2
18 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.3 2.2 0.9
19 Richaun Holmes WSH 3.8 3.2 0.5
20 Orlando Robinson TOR 3.6 2.5 1.0
21 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 3.1 1.4 0.6
22 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.9 1.7 0.5
23 Johnny Davis WSH 2.5 1.1 0.5
24 Garrett Temple TOR 2.4 1.2 0.7
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.4 1.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.