NBA games

DET @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
119–133
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET33313223119
IND40342831133

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home IND
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 32 5 9
Malik Beasley 29 20 2 2
Tobias Harris S 36 19 8 2
Jalen Duren S 31 14 10 3
Ausar Thompson S 19 10 3 1
Marcus Sasser 12 6 1 1
Ronald Holland II 9 6 2 1
Simone Fontecchio 17 6 4 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 28 3 2 2
Paul Reed 9 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 31 37 6 4
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 30 7 8
Myles Turner S 29 24 7 3
T.J. McConnell 21 14 6 3
Ben Sheppard S 33 12 2 4
Thomas Bryant 17 9 2 2
Jarace Walker 21 3 2 2
RayJ Dennis 2 3 0 0
Obi Toppin 17 1 1 0
Johnny Furphy 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:25 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes 24-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam IND
15%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
10%
4 Myles Turner IND
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
8 Andrew Nembhard IND
8%
9 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
10 Tobias Harris DET
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 26.9 6.1 9.1
2 Pascal Siakam IND 22.6 7.6 3.4
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 20.4 3.8 8.7
4 Malik Beasley DET 16.3 3.1 2.1
5 Myles Turner IND 16.2 5.8 1.6
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 15.5 4.9 2.2
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 12.9 3.0 1.6
8 Jalen Duren DET 12.6 11.2 1.9
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 11.1 3.9 5.4
10 Tobias Harris DET 10.7 4.5 2.4
11 Ausar Thompson DET 9.5 5.6 1.7
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 7.8 3.1 1.1
13 Obi Toppin IND 7.6 3.4 1.2
14 Thomas Bryant IND 7.5 4.2 0.9
15 T.J. McConnell IND 6.9 2.8 4.3
16 Marcus Sasser DET 6.6 1.7 2.3
17 Simone Fontecchio DET 5.8 2.6 1.1
18 Ronald Holland II DET 5.8 2.7 1.1
19 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.5 5.9 1.5
20 Ben Sheppard IND 5.5 2.3 1.0
21 Jarace Walker IND 4.7 3.1 1.1
22 Paul Reed DET 3.2 2.0 1.1
23 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 3.1 1.9 1.0
24 RayJ Dennis IND 1.6 0.9 0.4
25 Johnny Furphy IND 1.5 0.7 0.3
26 Enrique Freeman IND 1.5 0.8 0.3
27 James Johnson IND 1.2 0.8 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.