NBA games

BKN @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
104–83
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN26273120104
CHA1918262083

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home CHA
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Johnson S 31 18 5 4
Jalen Wilson S 35 15 1 1
Tosan Evbuomwan 30 14 4 1
Ziaire Williams S 33 13 3 3
Nic Claxton S 28 12 8 0
Ben Simmons 23 10 2 6
Trendon Watford 18 9 4 2
D'Angelo Russell S 22 6 7 7
Day'Ron Sharpe 10 5 6 1
Reece Beekman 10 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 32 23 13 1
Vasilije Micic S 28 15 7 6
Moussa Diabate 27 13 8 1
Josh Okogie S 26 9 2 2
Isaiah Wong 19 8 2 0
KJ Simpson 27 7 3 2
Seth Curry 16 6 1 1
Nick Smith Jr. S 27 2 5 2
DaQuan Jeffries 21 0 1 1
Taj Gibson S 18 0 10 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes driving layup (Keon Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nic Claxton BKN
13%
2 D'Angelo Russell BKN
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
12%
4 Ben Simmons BKN
12%
5 Noah Clowney BKN
11%
6 Keon Johnson BKN
11%
7 Jalen Wilson BKN
10%
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
9%
9 Grant Williams CHA
9%
10 Cam Thomas BKN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
15%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
31%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Miles Bridges CHA 22.4 6.6 4.2
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.2 3.5 3.9
3 D'Angelo Russell BKN 16.0 3.4 6.5
4 Tre Mann CHA 13.7 3.1 3.4
5 Keon Johnson BKN 12.8 2.9 2.6
6 Grant Williams CHA 12.6 6.0 2.1
7 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 10.9 3.1 2.9
8 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.7 3.8 2.5
9 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 10.3 4.0 1.7
10 Ziaire Williams BKN 9.5 4.5 1.9
11 Nic Claxton BKN 9.4 7.7 1.9
12 Noah Clowney BKN 9.2 3.8 1.2
13 Ben Simmons BKN 8.6 4.4 6.9
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.5 6.3 1.4
15 Trendon Watford BKN 8.3 2.8 1.4
16 Seth Curry CHA 7.4 1.8 1.0
17 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.5 1.7 2.7
18 Josh Okogie CHA 6.3 2.9 1.2
19 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.0 3.3 1.0
20 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.1 4.3 0.8
21 Reece Beekman BKN 4.6 1.5 1.6
22 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.6 1.5 1.1
23 KJ Simpson CHA 4.4 1.7 1.5
24 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 2.5 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.