NBA games

MIL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
112–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL36252823112
POR31333328125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home POR
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 36 39 12 5
Damian Lillard S 38 20 3 6
Brook Lopez S 35 11 3 3
Gary Trent Jr. 27 11 4 3
Andre Jackson Jr. S 26 9 7 5
Ryan Rollins 15 9 1 0
Taurean Prince S 20 4 2 0
Pat Connaughton 14 4 2 2
MarJon Beauchamp 6 3 1 1
Stanley Umude 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 30 9 2
Anfernee Simons S 38 25 3 7
Deandre Ayton S 34 21 14 2
Shaedon Sharpe 31 17 5 3
Scoot Henderson 27 10 4 6
Toumani Camara S 40 8 11 4
Jerami Grant S 16 8 0 1
Donovan Clingan 11 4 6 1
Bryce McGowens 1 2 0 0
Duop Reath 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brook Lopez · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Brook Lopez makes alley oop dunk shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Deni Avdija POR
11%
2 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
4 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
5 Toumani Camara POR
9%
6 Jerami Grant POR
9%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
9%
8 Donovan Clingan POR
9%
9 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
36%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 31.6 13.3 6.4
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.9 5.5 7.1
3 Deni Avdija POR 19.9 7.8 4.9
4 Anfernee Simons POR 18.1 3.4 3.6
5 Scoot Henderson POR 17.5 3.5 5.4
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 16.7 4.9 2.8
7 Toumani Camara POR 12.7 5.3 2.6
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.0 5.1 1.8
9 Jerami Grant POR 11.7 3.7 1.8
10 Khris Middleton MIL 11.6 3.6 3.5
11 Deandre Ayton POR 11.5 9.7 1.6
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.4 2.6 1.4
13 Taurean Prince MIL 8.0 3.1 2.3
14 Dalano Banton POR 7.2 1.9 1.3
15 Kris Murray POR 6.4 2.7 1.4
16 Donovan Clingan POR 5.7 7.1 1.3
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.5 1.9 1.2
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.9 3.4 1.1
19 Robert Williams III POR 4.4 5.9 0.8
20 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.0 2.3 1.5
21 Duop Reath POR 3.3 1.1 0.5
22 Jabari Walker POR 2.8 2.2 0.4
23 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.7 1.4 0.5
24 Stanley Umude MIL 2.4 1.2 0.5
25 Delon Wright MIL 2.4 1.2 1.2
26 Rayan Rupert POR 1.7 0.7 0.4
27 Bryce McGowens POR 1.6 0.6 0.3
28 Chris Livingston MIL 1.5 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.