NBA games

UTAH @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
103–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH27243220103
GS27353022114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home GS
25% 75%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 34 30 2 4
Drew Eubanks S 23 13 4 2
Micah Potter S 30 13 7 2
Keyonte George 32 12 6 6
Isaiah Collier S 32 12 6 9
Kyle Filipowski 20 10 3 4
Brice Sensabaugh S 27 8 2 1
Svi Mykhailiuk 21 5 4 1
Patty Mills 14 0 2 0
Elijah Harkless 6 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 34 23 5 4
Brandin Podziemski 32 20 7 6
Andrew Wiggins S 33 19 2 3
Moses Moody S 27 15 4 3
Quinten Post 16 10 5 2
Gui Santos 23 7 7 2
Kyle Anderson 11 6 2 0
Kevon Looney 24 6 11 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 6 4 1 1
Buddy Hield S 22 2 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Micah Potter · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Micah Potter makes 28-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
17%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
12%
3 Collin Sexton UTAH
11%
4 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
10%
5 Drew Eubanks UTAH
9%
6 Micah Potter UTAH
7%
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
8 Buddy Hield GS
7%
9 Gary Payton II GS
7%
10 Johnny Juzang UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
41%
Jumper
22%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.1 4.7 6.5
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.2 4.0 5.4
3 Andrew Wiggins GS 19.1 5.0 2.7
4 Keyonte George UTAH 18.9 4.0 6.0
5 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 14.4 3.1 1.9
6 Dennis Schroder GS 12.7 2.3 5.0
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH 12.3 4.0 8.0
8 Buddy Hield GS 11.8 3.5 2.4
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 11.5 3.0 2.2
10 Moses Moody GS 9.8 3.1 1.9
11 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.5 3.3 2.7
12 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 9.0 8.2 1.9
13 Drew Eubanks UTAH 7.5 7.0 1.4
14 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.9 5.7 1.6
15 Gui Santos GS 6.8 3.4 1.8
16 Johnny Juzang UTAH 6.4 2.8 0.9
17 Kyle Anderson GS 5.6 2.9 1.9
18 Kevon Looney GS 5.6 6.6 1.7
19 Gary Payton II GS 5.4 3.3 1.4
20 Elijah Harkless UTAH 5.1 2.3 0.9
21 Lindy Waters III GS 5.1 2.5 1.0
22 Quinten Post GS 5.0 1.6 1.3
23 Micah Potter UTAH 4.9 2.9 0.9
24 Patty Mills UTAH 4.3 1.2 1.1
25 Pat Spencer GS 2.8 1.3 1.1
26 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.7 4.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.