NBA games

LAL @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
104–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL25321928104
PHI25482619118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHI
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 33 31 8 9
Dalton Knecht 23 24 5 0
Rui Hachimura S 24 13 2 1
Austin Reaves S 34 13 6 8
Cam Reddish 18 5 1 0
Anthony Davis S 10 4 2 0
Christian Koloko 18 4 2 4
Jaxson Hayes 19 4 3 0
Dorian Finney-Smith 19 3 3 0
Max Christie S 22 3 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 36 43 3 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 39 20 8 5
Ricky Council IV 20 16 7 2
Guerschon Yabusele S 27 14 5 3
Eric Gordon S 31 14 3 2
Justin Edwards S 29 7 4 3
Adem Bona 20 4 6 1
Pete Nance 7 0 1 0
Reggie Jackson 12 0 2 1
Kyle Lowry 16 0 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 10:13 Q1
"LeBron James makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
2 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
3 LeBron James LAL
11%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
5 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
9%
6 Max Christie LAL
8%
7 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
8%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
7%
10 Tyrese Maxey PHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
60%
Jumper
9%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 31.3 3.8 4.8
2 LeBron James LAL 25.1 8.3 9.3
3 Anthony Davis LAL 25.1 12.0 3.9
4 Austin Reaves LAL 20.0 3.4 6.7
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.2 6.6 2.5
6 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 12.2 6.0 2.7
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 12.0 4.8 1.6
8 Max Christie LAL 11.0 3.8 1.9
9 Eric Gordon PHI 10.4 2.0 2.0
10 Justin Edwards PHI 9.6 3.3 1.4
11 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 7.9 3.2 1.2
12 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.6 2.6 1.5
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.2 2.2 0.8
14 Shake Milton LAL 5.5 1.8 1.8
15 Jaxson Hayes LAL 5.0 3.6 1.0
16 Adem Bona PHI 4.9 4.2 0.7
17 Andre Drummond PHI 4.9 5.4 0.6
18 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.7 1.4 0.9
19 Kyle Lowry PHI 4.2 1.8 1.9
20 Jeff Dowtin Jr. PHI 4.0 1.4 1.4
21 Cam Reddish LAL 3.3 2.1 0.7
22 Christian Koloko LAL 2.2 2.8 0.4
23 Pete Nance PHI 2.2 1.0 0.4
24 Bronny James LAL 1.6 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.