NBA games

LAC @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
109111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC30173131109
PHX34262328111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home PHX
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Ivica Zubac S 34 25 16 4
James Harden S 37 24 6 10
Norman Powell S 38 23 5 2
Kawhi Leonard S 28 17 5 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 31 12 5 1
Amir Coffey 34 6 2 1
Terance Mann 7 2 0 0
Mo Bamba 5 0 0 1
Nicolas Batum 12 0 0 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 14 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 39 26 7 8
Kevin Durant S 40 24 4 5
Grayson Allen 28 18 6 0
Tyus Jones S 28 17 5 4
Royce O'Neale S 25 11 2 0
Bradley Beal 33 9 2 4
Nick Richards S 20 6 7 0
Mason Plumlee 26 0 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ivica Zubac · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Ivica Zubac makes 1-foot dunk (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Norman Powell LAC
17%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
14%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
13%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
5 Devin Booker PHX
11%
6 James Harden LAC
9%
7 Nick Richards PHX
9%
8 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
7%
10 Bones Hyland LAC
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
46%
Layup
14%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.1 4.3 6.5
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.0 6.2 4.5
3 Norman Powell LAC 22.9 4.6 2.3
4 James Harden LAC 22.8 5.3 10.1
5 Ivica Zubac LAC 15.3 12.1 2.8
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC 14.3 3.7 2.1
7 Bradley Beal PHX 13.6 3.3 3.5
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 11.9 4.4 1.2
9 Grayson Allen PHX 10.8 3.0 1.8
10 Amir Coffey LAC 10.5 2.8 1.4
11 Tyus Jones PHX 10.0 2.3 5.4
12 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.1 3.3 3.7
13 Nick Richards PHX 8.2 7.9 1.1
14 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 7.2 6.5 2.4
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.9 2.9 1.6
16 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.4 3.9 1.6
17 Bones Hyland LAC 6.3 1.6 2.0
18 Mo Bamba LAC 5.8 5.3 0.8
19 Collin Gillespie PHX 5.1 1.2 1.6
20 Mason Plumlee PHX 4.5 6.0 1.6
21 Monte Morris PHX 4.5 1.2 1.0
22 Nicolas Batum LAC 4.1 3.1 1.0
23 Kobe Brown LAC 4.0 2.8 0.9
24 Oso Ighodaro PHX 3.7 2.6 0.9
25 Bol Bol PHX 2.8 1.2 0.3
26 Damion Lee PHX 2.8 0.8 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.