NBA games

MIL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
125–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL35333225125
UTAH26332130110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home UTAH
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 35 18 7
Damian Lillard S 41 35 5 8
Khris Middleton 27 22 3 3
Brook Lopez S 35 10 6 1
Gary Trent Jr. 27 8 2 2
Taurean Prince S 32 6 4 8
Andre Jackson Jr. S 26 6 5 2
Pat Connaughton 7 3 3 1
Ryan Rollins 7 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 27 19 5 4
Lauri Markkanen S 36 19 9 1
Brice Sensabaugh 15 17 0 1
Keyonte George 31 15 4 5
Jordan Clarkson 22 13 3 5
Isaiah Collier S 28 12 2 8
Kyle Filipowski 26 6 8 3
Drew Eubanks S 22 4 10 1
Micah Potter S 23 3 4 0
Elijah Harkless 10 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 3-foot layup (Drew Eubanks assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
17%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
16%
3 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
6 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
7 Isaiah Collier UTAH
7%
8 Taurean Prince MIL
7%
9 Micah Potter UTAH
7%
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
8%
Layup
44%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.3 13.3 7.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.4 5.5 6.9
3 Collin Sexton UTAH 22.4 3.9 5.5
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.0 4.7 2.1
5 Keyonte George UTAH 18.6 3.9 6.0
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 16.0 3.2 4.2
7 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 14.3 3.5 1.9
8 Brook Lopez MIL 13.0 4.8 2.3
9 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 11.7 2.9 2.2
10 Isaiah Collier UTAH 11.0 4.2 7.5
11 Khris Middleton MIL 10.9 3.8 4.5
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 10.6 2.7 1.5
13 Taurean Prince MIL 8.2 2.9 2.1
14 Drew Eubanks UTAH 7.9 6.5 1.4
15 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 7.3 5.4 1.6
16 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.7 1.9 1.3
17 Elijah Harkless UTAH 5.1 2.1 0.9
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.9 3.2 1.3
19 Patty Mills UTAH 4.3 1.1 1.1
20 Pat Connaughton MIL 3.7 2.2 1.5
21 Micah Potter UTAH 3.3 1.9 0.7
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 2.8 1.5 0.6
23 Stanley Umude MIL 2.5 1.4 0.6
24 Delon Wright MIL 2.5 1.2 1.3
25 Oscar Tshiebwe UTAH 2.5 4.2 0.3
26 Chris Livingston MIL 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.