NBA games

WSH @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
108–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH16273332108
DAL42312829130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home DAL
10% 90%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Bilal Coulibaly S 29 16 4 5
Corey Kispert 30 15 2 0
Jordan Poole S 29 15 6 6
Tristan Vukcevic 8 10 2 1
Jonas Valanciunas 19 9 5 2
Richaun Holmes 10 9 5 0
Bub Carrington 25 7 1 1
Kyle Kuzma S 21 7 6 1
Justin Champagnie 12 6 6 4
Alex Sarr S 11 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Klay Thompson S 24 23 3 4
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 25 20 5 1
P.J. Washington S 25 19 9 3
Daniel Gafford S 24 18 8 3
Kyrie Irving S 28 13 5 5
Jaden Hardy 13 12 1 0
Quentin Grimes 25 9 4 6
Spencer Dinwiddie S 26 8 3 9
Kessler Edwards 23 5 7 2
Markieff Morris 12 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Klay Thompson · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:17 Q1
"Klay Thompson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daniel Gafford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 P.J. Washington DAL
11%
3 Daniel Gafford DAL
11%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
6 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL
10%
7 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
9%
8 Alex Sarr WSH
9%
9 Klay Thompson DAL
8%
10 Kyshawn George WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
55%
Jumper
10%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyrie Irving DAL 26.6 4.5 4.9
2 Jordan Poole WSH 21.2 4.0 5.6
3 P.J. Washington DAL 19.8 10.3 3.0
4 Spencer Dinwiddie DAL 17.5 4.2 4.6
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH 15.4 6.1 3.9
6 Daniel Gafford DAL 14.9 9.0 1.9
7 Quentin Grimes DAL 12.8 4.0 3.5
8 Jaden Hardy DAL 12.7 2.7 2.8
9 Klay Thompson DAL 12.5 3.4 2.4
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.4 4.4 3.0
11 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 10.7 8.4 1.8
12 Alex Sarr WSH 10.6 7.4 1.8
13 Corey Kispert WSH 10.3 2.9 1.8
14 Kyshawn George WSH 9.9 3.2 2.6
15 Bub Carrington WSH 9.1 3.6 3.1
16 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 5.3 2.8 1.0
17 Justin Champagnie WSH 4.3 2.3 0.7
18 Brandon Williams DAL 4.3 1.5 1.2
19 Kessler Edwards DAL 3.0 1.9 0.8
20 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.2 2.5 0.3
21 Markieff Morris DAL 2.1 1.1 0.5
22 Anthony Gill WSH 2.0 0.7 0.5
23 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.0 1.3 0.4
24 Johnny Davis WSH 2.0 0.7 0.5
25 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.8 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.