NBA games

ATL @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
92–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL2023311892
MIN28322020100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home MIN
19% 81%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Andre Hunter 32 35 2 1
Keaton Wallace S 35 13 3 7
Zaccharie Risacher S 20 11 7 3
Clint Capela 21 10 15 3
Onyeka Okongwu S 27 7 7 1
Garrison Mathews 26 6 1 1
Vit Krejci S 34 4 5 6
Mouhamed Gueye 19 4 4 1
David Roddy S 18 2 5 0
Dominick Barlow 9 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 35 23 5 4
Julius Randle S 32 20 8 2
Rudy Gobert S 38 18 10 1
Naz Reid 29 15 3 2
Jaden McDaniels S 33 10 8 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 22 5 9 2
Rob Dillingham 11 5 2 1
Mike Conley S 31 4 4 4
Josh Minott 8 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · Free Throw (1 pts) · 9:59 Q1
"Julius Randle makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle MIN
15%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
10%
5 Jaden McDaniels MIN
10%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
7 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
8 Keaton Wallace ATL
8%
9 Vit Krejci ATL
8%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
24%
Jumper
30%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 27.3 5.6 6.7
2 Julius Randle MIN 18.4 8.4 5.2
3 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.2 5.7 3.9
4 Naz Reid MIN 16.3 5.8 2.3
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 14.7 3.1 2.2
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.4 10.1 3.2
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN 13.0 6.9 1.8
8 Vit Krejci ATL 11.4 3.1 3.4
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.7 9.3 2.1
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 8.9 3.2 1.2
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 8.8 2.5 1.8
12 Mike Conley MIN 8.7 2.7 4.0
13 Clint Capela ATL 8.6 7.8 1.0
14 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 6.9 2.7 1.9
15 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.4 2.5 1.4
16 Rob Dillingham MIN 5.7 1.5 2.0
17 Keaton Wallace ATL 4.6 1.4 2.0
18 David Roddy ATL 4.1 2.4 1.0
19 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.6 2.5 0.7
20 Josh Minott MIN 3.6 1.5 0.6
21 Luka Garza MIN 3.3 1.3 0.5
22 Leonard Miller MIN 3.2 2.6 0.6
23 Jaylen Clark MIN 3.1 1.5 0.6
24 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.7 1.3 0.4
25 Joe Ingles MIN 1.7 0.9 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.