NBA games

DEN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
121–129
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN35332825121
CHI32293434129

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home CHI
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 40 33 12 14
Christian Braun S 33 28 5 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 32 18 7 0
Jamal Murray S 40 18 6 6
Russell Westbrook S 35 14 3 5
Aaron Gordon 22 6 2 4
Peyton Watson 24 4 5 3
Julian Strawther 15 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 35 21 3 6
Nikola Vucevic S 34 20 10 6
Lonzo Ball S 25 18 4 0
Ayo Dosunmu S 34 17 2 2
Dalen Terry 13 13 4 2
Josh Giddey S 27 12 4 10
Patrick Williams 28 11 8 3
Matas Buzelis 20 9 4 2
Jalen Smith 14 5 7 1
Julian Phillips 6 3 0 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 1-foot driving dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
14%
2 Nikola Jokic DEN
13%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
11%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
11%
5 Russell Westbrook DEN
10%
6 Christian Braun DEN
10%
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
8 Josh Giddey CHI
7%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
7%
10 Lonzo Ball CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
30%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.8 12.9 11.9
2 Zach LaVine CHI 25.9 5.5 5.2
3 Jamal Murray DEN 22.8 4.1 5.9
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.4 10.4 4.0
5 Russell Westbrook DEN 18.5 6.1 6.4
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 14.8 5.5 1.7
7 Christian Braun DEN 14.5 4.6 1.6
8 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.1 3.7 4.6
9 Josh Giddey CHI 11.5 8.0 6.2
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 11.4 3.8 1.9
11 Julian Strawther DEN 9.9 2.1 1.7
12 Lonzo Ball CHI 9.5 3.3 3.5
13 Jalen Smith CHI 8.0 4.9 1.2
14 Patrick Williams CHI 7.8 3.2 1.9
15 Peyton Watson DEN 7.6 4.3 1.6
16 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.5 3.0 0.7
17 DeAndre Jordan DEN 5.3 5.7 0.8
18 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.2 1.3 1.1
19 Julian Phillips CHI 4.5 2.5 0.6
20 Jevon Carter CHI 4.4 1.1 0.9
21 Dario Saric DEN 4.3 3.0 1.5
22 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.9 1.3 1.2
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.0 1.7 1.1
24 Hunter Tyson DEN 2.8 1.3 0.7
25 Zeke Nnaji DEN 2.5 1.3 0.6
26 PJ Hall DEN 2.5 1.4 0.6
27 Chris Duarte CHI 1.7 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.