NBA games

NO @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
104–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO20203529104
TOR25311839113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home TOR
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 27 31 7 2
CJ McCollum S 36 22 7 2
Dejounte Murray S 36 21 7 8
Trey Murphy III S 39 14 7 3
Javonte Green 27 9 7 0
Jordan Hawkins 21 7 1 1
Jose Alvarado 18 0 3 3
Daniel Theis 14 0 2 2
Yves Missi S 22 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 37 21 11 8
Jakob Poeltl S 32 21 14 5
RJ Barrett S 34 17 6 6
Chris Boucher 18 14 4 0
Bruce Brown 29 12 9 2
Gradey Dick S 19 10 6 0
Davion Mitchell S 24 7 0 4
Jamal Shead 24 5 2 5
Orlando Robinson 11 4 1 1
Ochai Agbaji 12 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:36 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes 25-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
2 Zion Williamson NO
11%
3 Dejounte Murray NO
10%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 CJ McCollum NO
9%
8 Jordan Hawkins NO
8%
9 Yves Missi NO
8%
10 Gradey Dick TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
54%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zion Williamson NO 24.3 8.8 5.5
2 Trey Murphy III NO 23.3 5.7 3.8
3 Dejounte Murray NO 22.6 6.5 7.4
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.2 8.0 6.4
5 CJ McCollum NO 20.4 3.7 3.8
6 RJ Barrett TOR 20.1 6.5 5.2
7 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.7 9.4 2.8
8 Gradey Dick TOR 11.6 2.6 2.4
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 11.0 2.4 1.4
10 Yves Missi NO 9.9 7.0 1.5
11 Chris Boucher TOR 9.6 4.3 0.9
12 Bruce Brown TOR 9.0 3.9 1.8
13 Jose Alvarado NO 8.6 2.2 3.8
14 Davion Mitchell TOR 7.1 2.2 3.7
15 Javonte Green NO 7.0 4.3 1.5
16 Jamal Shead TOR 6.8 1.5 3.1
17 Daniel Theis NO 6.5 5.3 1.7
18 Ochai Agbaji TOR 6.3 2.3 1.2
19 Antonio Reeves NO 4.9 1.5 1.0
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.8 1.7 1.2
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.4 4.4 1.4
22 Jamison Battle TOR 3.5 1.2 0.7
23 Jonathan Mogbo TOR 3.2 2.3 0.8
24 Orlando Robinson TOR 2.9 2.0 0.9
25 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.5 2.5 0.6
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.4 1.2 0.7
27 Ulrich Chomche TOR 1.5 1.2 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.