NBA games

MEM @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
106–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM31213222106
NY34264241143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home NY
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 33 21 4 0
Desmond Bane S 30 16 3 4
Ja Morant S 27 10 5 2
Santi Aldama 22 10 4 1
Brandon Clarke 17 10 4 1
Zach Edey S 19 9 11 0
GG Jackson 17 8 1 1
Luke Kennard 20 7 2 7
Jaylen Wells S 17 5 3 2
Scotty Pippen Jr. 17 5 5 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 34 28 5 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 33 24 11 1
Jalen Brunson S 25 20 1 6
OG Anunoby S 34 15 5 4
Miles McBride 24 14 4 4
Precious Achiuwa 20 14 3 1
Cameron Payne 16 11 3 1
Landry Shamet 12 6 0 0
Josh Hart S 27 4 10 5
Tyler Kolek 4 3 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Desmond Bane · Layup (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"Desmond Bane makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
2 Josh Hart NY
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 OG Anunoby NY
11%
5 Ja Morant MEM
10%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
9%
7 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
9%
9 Zach Edey MEM
8%
10 Jaylen Wells MEM
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
16%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.9 3.2 6.7
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 25.2 13.3 4.1
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.6 6.4 3.2
4 Desmond Bane MEM 22.4 4.3 6.7
5 Ja Morant MEM 21.7 4.0 7.0
6 Mikal Bridges NY 18.9 3.2 3.9
7 OG Anunoby NY 16.6 4.6 2.6
8 Josh Hart NY 15.1 11.7 6.1
9 Luke Kennard MEM 12.2 3.4 3.3
10 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.6 3.0 1.6
11 Santi Aldama MEM 8.7 4.9 1.3
12 GG Jackson MEM 7.8 3.4 1.0
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 7.6 4.4 1.3
14 Cameron Payne NY 7.5 1.5 1.8
15 Zach Edey MEM 7.2 6.1 1.0
16 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 6.6 2.7 3.1
17 Miles McBride NY 6.6 1.8 2.1
18 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.7 4.3 1.1
19 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.3 2.9 1.8
20 Jay Huff MEM 5.0 2.0 0.7
21 John Konchar MEM 4.9 5.4 1.2
22 Landry Shamet NY 4.2 1.3 0.8
23 Matt Ryan NY 3.1 1.2 0.7
24 Jericho Sims NY 2.6 3.0 0.8
25 Jacob Toppin NY 2.4 1.3 0.6
26 Tyler Kolek NY 2.3 1.0 0.8
27 Ariel Hukporti NY 2.0 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.