NBA games

ORL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
119–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5Q6T
ORL2930292083119
MIA2728242989125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home MIA
22% 78%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 40 29 8 3
Paolo Banchero S 44 17 5 6
Tristan da Silva 34 17 6 5
Wendell Carter Jr. S 36 14 7 5
Anthony Black S 42 14 1 3
Jonathan Isaac 18 12 8 0
Goga Bitadze 22 10 9 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 36 6 1 1
Cole Anthony 18 0 2 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 48 30 8 12
Bam Adebayo S 44 26 10 9
Kel'el Ware S 43 19 10 0
Nikola Jovic 47 15 7 2
Duncan Robinson S 45 15 3 4
Terry Rozier 23 11 2 3
Pelle Larsson 19 5 0 0
Haywood Highsmith S 19 4 3 4
Kevin Love 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes 12-foot two point shot (Paolo Banchero assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
9%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
7 Kel'el Ware MIA
8%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL
7%
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
7%
10 Kevin Love MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
33%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Franz Wagner ORL 25.7 5.6 6.3
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.6 8.4 5.6
3 Tyler Herro MIA 24.1 5.4 5.9
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 18.6 5.0 3.8
5 Cole Anthony ORL 16.7 5.0 4.3
6 Bam Adebayo MIA 15.1 10.1 3.9
7 Nikola Jovic MIA 14.6 4.6 4.7
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.1 4.4 3.4
9 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.6 8.1 1.3
10 Terry Rozier MIA 12.5 4.2 3.2
11 Anthony Black ORL 12.4 3.2 3.6
12 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.7 2.9 3.0
13 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.9 7.2 2.5
14 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.0 2.3 1.8
15 Goga Bitadze ORL 9.5 7.9 2.9
16 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.6 4.6 1.7
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 7.7 5.7 0.9
18 Haywood Highsmith MIA 6.2 2.7 1.5
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.5 1.8 1.0
20 Jett Howard ORL 5.5 1.6 1.1
21 Josh Richardson MIA 5.2 1.7 1.5
22 Trevelin Queen ORL 4.9 2.4 1.5
23 Alec Burks MIA 3.5 1.2 0.7
24 Kevin Love MIA 3.4 2.0 0.9
25 Josh Christopher MIA 3.3 1.0 1.1
26 Pelle Larsson MIA 2.9 1.3 0.5
27 Cory Joseph ORL 2.6 0.8 0.9
28 Keshad Johnson MIA 2.3 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.