NBA games

SAC @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
110–96
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC22253330110
BKN3024241896

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home BKN
79% 21%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 30 1 7
Domantas Sabonis S 41 21 22 10
DeMar DeRozan S 37 17 2 1
Malik Monk S 34 16 6 9
Keon Ellis 30 11 1 2
Keegan Murray S 24 9 3 1
Trey Lyles 15 4 5 0
Devin Carter 10 2 2 1
Alex Len 5 0 1 0
Doug McDermott 7 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 29 19 4 3
Tosan Evbuomwan 29 15 8 2
Jalen Wilson S 40 15 2 4
Day'Ron Sharpe 23 12 10 1
Keon Johnson S 23 10 2 3
Tyrese Martin 24 8 2 1
Noah Clowney S 12 6 1 0
Nic Claxton S 25 6 7 3
Ziaire Williams 22 5 2 0
Reece Beekman 12 0 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
D'Angelo Russell · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"D'Angelo Russell makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC
16%
2 Malik Monk SAC
14%
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC
11%
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC
10%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 D'Angelo Russell BKN
9%
7 Keon Johnson BKN
9%
8 Jalen Wilson BKN
7%
9 Noah Clowney BKN
7%
10 Keegan Murray SAC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
40%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Malik Monk SAC 24.5 3.9 7.9
2 DeMar DeRozan SAC 23.5 4.2 3.3
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.2 15.7 9.0
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC 22.0 4.9 6.0
5 D'Angelo Russell BKN 14.4 3.2 7.4
6 Keon Johnson BKN 14.0 3.1 3.1
7 Noah Clowney BKN 12.2 4.5 1.5
8 Keegan Murray SAC 12.1 6.4 1.7
9 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.5 4.8 2.3
10 Tyrese Martin BKN 11.0 5.1 2.6
11 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.9 3.9 2.5
12 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 10.9 4.1 1.8
13 Nic Claxton BKN 10.2 8.1 2.0
14 Keon Ellis SAC 9.7 3.0 1.7
15 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 8.9 6.8 1.7
16 Trendon Watford BKN 8.7 3.0 1.6
17 Trey Lyles SAC 6.6 5.5 1.3
18 Kevin Huerter SAC 5.3 1.4 1.0
19 Doug McDermott SAC 4.5 1.0 0.6
20 Devin Carter SAC 4.2 2.6 1.2
21 Reece Beekman BKN 3.9 1.1 1.5
22 Dariq Whitehead BKN 3.4 1.1 0.5
23 Mason Jones SAC 3.3 2.0 1.3
24 Alex Len SAC 2.9 2.5 0.8
25 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 2.7 1.0 0.9
26 Jae Crowder SAC 2.6 1.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.