NBA games

HOU @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
114–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU31233129114
BOS27253723112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home BOS
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 40 36 3 0
Amen Thompson S 42 33 9 4
Jalen Green S 30 12 3 6
Alperen Sengun S 34 11 9 9
Fred VanVleet S 37 7 5 7
Tari Eason 25 6 6 2
Aaron Holiday 15 5 0 1
Steven Adams 14 4 4 0
Jae'Sean Tate 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 38 28 4 4
Jayson Tatum S 42 19 6 7
Luke Kornet S 33 18 7 1
Kristaps Porzingis S 25 17 8 2
Payton Pritchard 31 15 4 3
Jrue Holiday S 31 8 5 3
Neemias Queta 19 4 5 1
Jaden Springer 7 3 1 0
Drew Peterson 3 0 1 0
Jordan Walsh 4 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 25-foot three point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Amen Thompson HOU
11%
3 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
4 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
6 Dillon Brooks HOU
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Jalen Green HOU
7%
10 Jeff Green HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
26%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 25.1 4.4 4.0
2 Jayson Tatum BOS 24.7 7.3 5.7
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.0 10.6 5.2
4 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.8 6.1 5.9
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.0 7.2 2.3
6 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.1 3.0 5.3
7 Amen Thompson HOU 16.0 11.0 4.9
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 11.4 5.1 1.5
9 Tari Eason HOU 10.8 5.6 1.4
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.4 3.2 3.2
11 Jrue Holiday BOS 10.2 4.2 3.2
12 Cam Whitmore HOU 9.8 3.8 1.4
13 Dillon Brooks HOU 9.4 3.1 1.8
14 Al Horford BOS 6.9 5.0 1.5
15 Luke Kornet BOS 5.5 5.5 1.2
16 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.6 2.4 1.0
17 Steven Adams HOU 4.4 6.4 1.0
18 Neemias Queta BOS 4.4 1.9 0.6
19 JD Davison BOS 4.4 1.4 1.3
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.3 1.2 0.7
21 Jeff Green HOU 3.2 1.1 0.3
22 Jordan Walsh BOS 3.1 1.2 0.6
23 Jaden Springer BOS 3.0 1.0 0.7
24 Anton Watson BOS 2.8 1.2 1.0
25 Nate Williams HOU 2.3 0.7 0.4
26 Drew Peterson BOS 2.3 1.4 0.6
27 Baylor Scheierman BOS 2.1 1.2 0.5
28 Reed Sheppard HOU 1.9 1.6 0.5
29 Jock Landale HOU 1.3 1.7 0.3
30 Xavier Tillman BOS 1.2 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.