NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
91–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET2322222491
CLE26292728110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 33 22 3 7
Malik Beasley 23 19 4 2
Jalen Duren S 29 12 16 1
Marcus Sasser 19 11 0 5
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 31 8 3 2
Isaiah Stewart 16 6 4 1
Ronald Holland II 16 4 4 1
Simone Fontecchio 19 4 3 1
Wendell Moore Jr. 4 3 0 0
Tobias Harris S 27 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 31 22 5 7
Donovan Mitchell S 31 21 2 6
Ty Jerome 23 15 2 3
Jarrett Allen S 31 15 11 4
Evan Mobley S 28 11 14 3
Max Strus S 26 10 8 2
Sam Merrill 23 8 4 0
Jaylon Tyson 14 5 2 2
Georges Niang 20 3 3 0
Tristan Thompson 3 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Evan Mobley · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Evan Mobley makes 16-foot jumper (Jarrett Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
14%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
3 Jarrett Allen CLE
12%
4 Evan Mobley CLE
11%
5 Jalen Duren DET
10%
6 Darius Garland CLE
9%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
8%
9 Tobias Harris DET
7%
10 Max Strus CLE
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
39%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
26%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 31.0 6.2 9.5
2 Darius Garland CLE 25.7 2.9 7.5
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 24.4 4.7 4.7
4 Evan Mobley CLE 18.4 8.3 2.7
5 Malik Beasley DET 15.0 3.0 2.0
6 Jarrett Allen CLE 14.8 9.5 2.3
7 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 13.5 2.9 1.8
8 Jalen Duren DET 13.3 10.6 2.4
9 Tobias Harris DET 12.6 4.9 2.7
10 Ty Jerome CLE 12.6 3.1 2.9
11 Max Strus CLE 9.8 3.8 2.6
12 Ausar Thompson DET 9.6 5.3 1.7
13 Georges Niang CLE 8.4 3.3 1.2
14 Ronald Holland II DET 6.5 2.5 1.2
15 Marcus Sasser DET 6.5 1.9 2.4
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.4 2.8 1.1
17 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.5 5.9 1.4
18 Sam Merrill CLE 5.2 1.7 1.6
19 Paul Reed DET 3.4 2.2 1.3
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.9 1.5 0.6
21 Jaylon Tyson CLE 2.7 1.8 0.7
22 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.6 1.5 0.8
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.6 3.0 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.