NBA games

LAL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
112–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL39202726112
CHA19322630107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home CHA
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 37 42 23 2
LeBron James S 36 22 7 8
Austin Reaves S 38 17 5 6
Max Christie S 39 10 2 3
Jaxson Hayes 17 9 0 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 27 6 5 0
Jarred Vanderbilt 13 4 2 1
Dalton Knecht 21 2 2 0
Shake Milton 12 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Miles Bridges S 37 26 8 4
Josh Okogie 25 19 2 2
Josh Green S 33 15 1 1
Vasilije Micic 33 11 2 4
Mark Williams S 33 11 8 5
LaMelo Ball S 9 7 0 1
Isaiah Wong 6 5 0 1
DaQuan Jeffries 13 5 5 2
Moussa Diabate 11 4 4 0
Nick Smith Jr. S 25 4 1 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Austin Reaves · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Austin Reaves makes 22-foot three point shot (Max Christie assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Miles Bridges CHA
15%
2 Mark Williams CHA
13%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
9%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
6 Josh Green CHA
7%
7 Nick Smith Jr. CHA
6%
8 Rui Hachimura LAL
6%
9 LaMelo Ball CHA
6%
10 Max Christie LAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
26%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Davis LAL 26.2 13.8 3.7
2 LeBron James LAL 25.0 7.3 8.3
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 23.5 5.4 6.1
4 Miles Bridges CHA 21.8 6.4 4.0
5 Mark Williams CHA 19.7 11.1 3.0
6 Austin Reaves LAL 19.6 3.4 6.2
7 Rui Hachimura LAL 11.4 4.7 1.6
8 Max Christie LAL 10.0 3.6 1.6
9 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 9.7 2.9 2.3
10 Seth Curry CHA 8.1 2.1 1.3
11 Josh Green CHA 7.6 3.4 1.3
12 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 6.8 2.8 1.1
13 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.6 2.0 0.8
14 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.1 3.2 1.0
15 Vasilije Micic CHA 5.8 1.6 2.7
16 Josh Okogie CHA 5.5 2.8 1.0
17 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.3 4.3 0.8
18 Shake Milton LAL 4.8 1.3 1.9
19 Isaiah Wong CHA 4.6 1.5 1.1
20 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.2 3.3 0.8
21 Cam Reddish LAL 3.5 2.1 0.8
22 Taj Gibson CHA 2.8 2.2 0.7
23 Christian Koloko LAL 2.3 2.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.