NBA games

OKC @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
118–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC27392725118
POR27262530108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home POR
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 35 5 1
Jalen Williams S 37 24 4 8
Isaiah Joe 25 16 4 1
Isaiah Hartenstein S 33 14 12 6
Jaylin Williams 15 6 7 2
Kenrich Williams 14 6 3 0
Cason Wallace S 30 5 2 3
Ousmane Dieng 11 5 1 1
Aaron Wiggins S 17 4 1 0
Alex Caruso 23 3 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Deni Avdija S 38 28 8 8
Scoot Henderson 30 25 5 1
Toumani Camara S 35 24 9 4
Anfernee Simons S 35 14 2 3
Shaedon Sharpe 19 10 2 0
Dalano Banton 8 4 0 1
Jerami Grant S 29 2 2 3
Robert Williams III 21 1 10 0
Donovan Clingan S 20 0 6 1
Kris Murray 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 26-foot three pointer"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
16%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
3 Deni Avdija POR
9%
4 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC
9%
5 Donovan Clingan POR
8%
6 Toumani Camara POR
7%
7 Anfernee Simons POR
7%
8 Robert Williams III POR
7%
9 Jerami Grant POR
7%
10 Cason Wallace OKC
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
0%
Free Throw
86%
Jumper
4%
Layup
7%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 32.2 4.9 7.0
2 Jalen Williams OKC 22.5 5.0 5.4
3 Deni Avdija POR 19.7 8.4 4.4
4 Anfernee Simons POR 19.2 3.5 4.1
5 Scoot Henderson POR 16.9 3.4 5.8
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR 16.8 4.9 2.7
7 Jerami Grant POR 12.2 3.7 2.0
8 Toumani Camara POR 11.9 4.9 2.4
9 Cason Wallace OKC 11.8 4.3 2.5
10 Aaron Wiggins OKC 11.3 4.0 2.1
11 Isaiah Hartenstein OKC 10.4 10.7 4.0
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 9.1 2.4 1.3
13 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.1 5.7 2.0
14 Dalano Banton POR 7.1 2.0 1.3
15 Kris Murray POR 6.4 3.0 1.4
16 Alex Caruso OKC 6.3 2.7 2.4
17 Donovan Clingan POR 5.9 7.0 1.1
18 Kenrich Williams OKC 4.8 3.0 0.9
19 Branden Carlson OKC 4.2 1.9 0.6
20 Robert Williams III POR 4.1 5.0 0.8
21 Duop Reath POR 3.8 1.4 0.7
22 Jabari Walker POR 3.4 2.6 0.6
23 Ousmane Dieng OKC 3.0 1.5 0.6
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.3 1.1 0.5
25 Adam Flagler OKC 2.2 1.0 0.5
26 Rayan Rupert POR 2.2 1.0 0.6
27 Bryce McGowens POR 2.1 0.9 0.5
28 Alex Ducas OKC 1.8 0.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.