NBA games

MIL @ LAC

NBA Intuit Dome ·Final
117–127
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28313424117
LAC28303633127

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home LAC
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 36 13 1
Damian Lillard S 40 29 10 10
Gary Trent Jr. 34 19 2 2
Taurean Prince S 37 14 6 4
Brook Lopez S 41 13 4 1
Andre Jackson Jr. S 11 4 2 1
Tyler Smith 1 2 0 0
Ryan Rollins 10 0 0 2
Pat Connaughton 9 0 1 2
MarJon Beauchamp 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
James Harden S 35 40 5 9
Norman Powell S 36 33 6 0
Kawhi Leonard S 24 18 3 4
Ivica Zubac S 29 12 10 1
Amir Coffey 31 9 2 0
Kevin Porter Jr. 24 8 8 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 4 5 0
Terance Mann 14 3 4 0
Nicolas Batum 17 0 4 2
Kobe Brown 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:30 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
15%
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC
12%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
12%
4 Damian Lillard MIL
11%
5 Norman Powell LAC
10%
6 James Harden LAC
10%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC
8%
9 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
7%
10 Taurean Prince MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
0%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
80%
Jumper
5%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 30.6 12.9 6.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 25.4 4.5 6.4
3 Norman Powell LAC 21.7 4.1 2.5
4 James Harden LAC 21.1 5.0 9.0
5 Kawhi Leonard LAC 13.5 3.9 1.9
6 Ivica Zubac LAC 13.5 11.0 2.6
7 Khris Middleton MIL 12.3 3.7 4.1
8 Derrick Jones Jr. LAC 12.3 4.2 1.3
9 Brook Lopez MIL 11.5 5.2 1.9
10 Amir Coffey LAC 11.2 2.8 1.5
11 Kevin Porter Jr. LAC 9.3 2.9 3.8
12 Gary Trent Jr. MIL 9.0 2.4 1.2
13 Terance Mann LAC 8.2 2.7 1.7
14 Taurean Prince MIL 6.8 2.5 1.9
15 Bones Hyland LAC 6.8 1.7 2.2
16 Mo Bamba LAC 6.2 5.4 0.8
17 Ryan Rollins MIL 5.2 1.6 1.0
18 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.4 2.8 1.1
19 Kobe Brown LAC 4.2 2.9 1.0
20 Pat Connaughton MIL 4.1 2.6 1.2
21 Nicolas Batum LAC 3.8 2.9 0.9
22 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 3.4 1.5 0.5
23 Tyler Smith MIL 3.0 1.3 0.5
24 Stanley Umude MIL 2.3 1.1 0.4
25 Delon Wright MIL 2.2 1.0 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.