NBA games

WSH @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
109–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH24293224109
PHX35332823119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home PHX
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 34 30 11 4
Jordan Poole S 36 19 4 10
Jonas Valanciunas 17 16 4 2
Bilal Coulibaly S 36 12 4 4
Alex Sarr S 31 11 6 3
Bub Carrington 26 11 1 2
Kyshawn George S 32 5 6 2
Corey Kispert 24 5 1 1
Justin Champagnie 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 29 5 4
Bradley Beal 39 20 3 4
Nick Richards S 34 20 19 1
Devin Booker S 39 18 6 7
Tyus Jones S 32 16 3 5
Grayson Allen 25 8 4 1
Mason Plumlee 14 4 8 0
Royce O'Neale 17 3 4 1
Ryan Dunn S 2 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Devin Booker PHX
15%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
3 Alex Sarr WSH
10%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
5 Bub Carrington WSH
10%
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
10%
7 Nick Richards PHX
10%
8 Kyle Kuzma WSH
9%
9 Ryan Dunn PHX
8%
10 Tyus Jones PHX
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
54%
Jumper
17%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Devin Booker PHX 28.2 4.3 7.2
2 Kevin Durant PHX 26.7 6.8 5.2
3 Jordan Poole WSH 21.3 4.2 4.9
4 Bradley Beal PHX 15.8 4.0 3.5
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH 13.3 5.8 3.6
6 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 12.4 4.5 2.9
7 Alex Sarr WSH 11.9 8.0 1.8
8 Corey Kispert WSH 11.7 3.3 2.1
9 Grayson Allen PHX 11.5 3.1 2.0
10 Jonas Valanciunas WSH 11.1 8.5 1.6
11 Ryan Dunn PHX 10.9 5.0 1.5
12 Kyshawn George WSH 10.0 3.1 2.8
13 Bub Carrington WSH 9.4 3.9 3.3
14 Tyus Jones PHX 9.2 2.5 5.7
15 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 8.3 7.1 2.7
16 Nick Richards PHX 7.5 7.5 1.3
17 Royce O'Neale PHX 6.8 4.3 2.1
18 Collin Gillespie PHX 6.4 1.8 2.2
19 Monte Morris PHX 5.6 1.7 1.5
20 Justin Champagnie WSH 5.3 2.8 0.9
21 Mason Plumlee PHX 5.0 6.8 1.9
22 Oso Ighodaro PHX 4.7 3.4 1.3
23 Bol Bol PHX 3.8 1.8 0.7
24 Damion Lee PHX 3.8 1.3 1.0
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.6 1.2 0.5
26 Tristan Vukcevic WSH 2.6 1.8 0.5
27 Johnny Davis WSH 2.6 1.2 0.5
28 Richaun Holmes WSH 2.4 2.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.