NBA games

LAL @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
118–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL27323029118
GS26322525108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home GS
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 36 36 13 3
LeBron James S 35 25 5 12
Austin Reaves S 39 16 5 7
Dalton Knecht 23 13 1 1
Max Christie S 31 11 8 1
Dorian Finney-Smith S 26 8 3 0
Gabe Vincent 25 7 0 2
Jarred Vanderbilt 12 2 4 2
Jaxson Hayes 12 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Andrew Wiggins S 35 20 6 3
Brandin Podziemski 24 17 3 5
Stephen Curry S 32 13 1 9
Gary Payton II S 15 12 6 2
Buddy Hield S 21 10 4 0
Dennis Schroder 22 10 1 3
Moses Moody 21 10 2 2
Quinten Post 23 8 2 3
Gui Santos 20 4 4 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis S 14 4 6 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dorian Finney-Smith · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
13%
2 Andrew Wiggins GS
13%
3 LeBron James LAL
13%
4 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
5 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS
11%
6 Austin Reaves LAL
11%
7 Max Christie LAL
10%
8 Gary Payton II GS
9%
9 Buddy Hield GS
8%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
54%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
14%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.6 7.5 8.9
2 Anthony Davis LAL 25.6 12.5 4.1
3 Stephen Curry GS 21.7 4.8 6.2
4 Austin Reaves LAL 20.1 3.7 6.9
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 17.5 5.1 2.4
6 Max Christie LAL 11.9 3.4 1.8
7 Buddy Hield GS 11.3 3.1 2.6
8 Dennis Schroder GS 11.1 2.1 4.2
9 Brandin Podziemski GS 9.1 3.2 2.4
10 Moses Moody GS 8.9 2.8 1.7
11 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 8.2 7.3 2.0
12 Gabe Vincent LAL 7.3 2.1 2.1
13 Dorian Finney-Smith LAL 6.7 3.3 1.2
14 Lindy Waters III GS 6.6 2.8 1.1
15 Gui Santos GS 6.6 3.3 1.7
16 Dalton Knecht LAL 6.3 2.2 0.8
17 Kevon Looney GS 5.9 6.1 1.6
18 Gary Payton II GS 5.8 3.3 1.4
19 Shake Milton LAL 5.7 1.7 2.1
20 Quinten Post GS 5.2 1.7 1.0
21 Kyle Anderson GS 5.2 2.8 1.8
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.7 3.8 0.8
23 Cam Reddish LAL 4.2 2.5 0.9
24 Christian Koloko LAL 3.0 3.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.