NBA games

UTAH @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
103125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH31261729103
MEM35303624125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MEM
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Collin Sexton S 30 20 3 4
Svi Mykhailiuk S 25 16 3 1
Walker Kessler S 29 11 10 1
Kyle Filipowski 20 11 4 2
Elijah Harkless 22 11 4 2
Lauri Markkanen S 32 11 6 2
Keyonte George 33 8 3 7
Isaiah Collier S 33 8 5 8
Drew Eubanks 8 4 1 0
Brice Sensabaugh 9 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 30 28 3 2
Zach Edey S 28 19 7 0
Desmond Bane S 29 17 9 6
Jaylen Wells S 29 16 4 0
GG Jackson 24 15 6 3
Ja Morant S 26 11 1 7
Scotty Pippen Jr. 19 6 5 4
Brandon Clarke 18 6 5 2
Luke Kennard 21 4 1 3
John Konchar 16 3 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Lauri Markkanen · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Lauri Markkanen makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Collin Sexton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
16%
2 Collin Sexton UTAH
13%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
11%
4 Ja Morant MEM
10%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
6 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
7 Desmond Bane MEM
8%
8 Luke Kennard MEM
7%
9 Jaylen Wells MEM
7%
10 Zach Edey MEM
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
44%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 23.9 7.3 3.4
2 Collin Sexton UTAH 23.7 3.8 5.6
3 Desmond Bane MEM 23.5 4.4 7.6
4 Ja Morant MEM 21.9 4.3 6.9
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 21.0 4.9 2.0
6 Keyonte George UTAH 19.6 4.2 6.4
7 Brice Sensabaugh UTAH 15.5 3.6 2.1
8 Luke Kennard MEM 13.8 4.0 3.9
9 Walker Kessler UTAH 13.6 11.1 1.8
10 Svi Mykhailiuk UTAH 12.3 2.8 2.3
11 Jaylen Wells MEM 11.6 3.2 1.9
12 Isaiah Collier UTAH 11.5 3.9 7.6
13 Brandon Clarke MEM 8.5 4.8 1.3
14 Drew Eubanks UTAH 8.0 6.2 1.4
15 Scotty Pippen Jr. MEM 7.1 3.1 3.0
16 Kyle Filipowski UTAH 6.7 5.3 1.6
17 Zach Edey MEM 6.5 5.8 1.2
18 Cody Williams UTAH 6.3 2.1 1.4
19 GG Jackson MEM 6.1 3.2 0.9
20 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.8 3.1 2.0
21 Jay Huff MEM 5.2 2.1 0.8
22 John Konchar MEM 5.1 5.5 1.5
23 Patty Mills UTAH 4.8 1.3 1.3
24 Elijah Harkless UTAH 4.2 1.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.