NBA games

PHI @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
109–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI30302029109
CHI2825301497

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home CHI
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Maxey S 43 31 5 9
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 37 22 12 3
Eric Gordon S 29 13 2 2
Reggie Jackson 15 12 1 0
Paul George S 13 9 1 1
Ricky Council IV 11 7 3 1
Guerschon Yabusele S 29 6 6 4
Adem Bona 19 4 7 1
Justin Edwards 29 3 2 0
Kyle Lowry 15 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 38 25 8 4
Nikola Vucevic S 34 22 12 4
Josh Giddey S 38 10 10 7
Lonzo Ball S 24 9 4 2
Jalen Smith 14 9 7 0
Ayo Dosunmu 28 8 2 2
Matas Buzelis 12 6 3 0
Talen Horton-Tucker 8 4 1 1
Julian Phillips 7 2 2 0
Patrick Williams S 27 2 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 9:51 Q1
"Paul George makes 15-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
13%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
5 Paul George PHI
9%
6 Andre Drummond PHI
8%
7 Josh Giddey CHI
8%
8 Patrick Williams CHI
8%
9 Lonzo Ball CHI
7%
10 Guerschon Yabusele PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
69%
Jumper
16%
Layup
8%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.6 3.7 7.5
2 Zach LaVine CHI 27.5 5.8 5.5
3 Paul George PHI 22.8 6.4 5.8
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.9 10.8 4.1
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 16.7 7.0 2.5
6 Guerschon Yabusele PHI 13.3 6.5 2.5
7 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 12.8 4.0 4.9
8 Josh Giddey CHI 11.7 8.6 6.0
9 Justin Edwards PHI 10.2 3.9 1.5
10 Lonzo Ball CHI 9.7 3.8 3.9
11 Eric Gordon PHI 9.6 2.2 2.2
12 Patrick Williams CHI 8.8 3.2 1.9
13 Jalen Smith CHI 8.2 5.2 1.3
14 Ricky Council IV PHI 7.3 2.7 1.6
15 Andre Drummond PHI 5.8 6.0 0.9
16 Talen Horton-Tucker CHI 5.4 1.5 1.0
17 Adem Bona PHI 5.2 4.3 0.8
18 Matas Buzelis CHI 5.1 3.2 0.7
19 Jevon Carter CHI 5.0 1.5 1.0
20 Julian Phillips CHI 4.5 2.7 0.6
21 Reggie Jackson PHI 4.3 1.5 1.2
22 Kyle Lowry PHI 3.2 1.3 1.5
23 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 1.9 1.1
24 Pete Nance PHI 3.0 1.4 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.