NBA games

SAC @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
120–143
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC25423320120
NY38343932143

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home NY
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk S 34 31 3 9
Domantas Sabonis S 34 25 13 12
DeMar DeRozan S 35 18 3 2
De'Aaron Fox S 34 14 1 4
Keegan Murray S 39 12 8 4
Keon Ellis 17 6 3 0
Trey Lyles 13 6 4 0
Devin Carter 8 4 1 1
Kevin Huerter 10 4 1 1
Doug McDermott 9 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 35 33 3 4
Mikal Bridges S 35 27 5 7
Jalen Brunson S 36 25 1 11
Josh Hart S 40 20 18 11
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 18 15 2
Landry Shamet 13 9 3 1
Precious Achiuwa 18 4 5 0
Miles McBride 17 4 1 1
Cameron Payne 10 3 0 3
Tyler Kolek 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Layup (2 pts) · 11:10 Q1
"OG Anunoby makes layup (Josh Hart assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan SAC
12%
2 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
3 Malik Monk SAC
11%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
10%
5 OG Anunoby NY
10%
6 Mikal Bridges NY
9%
7 Domantas Sabonis SAC
9%
8 Karl-Anthony Towns NY
8%
9 Josh Hart NY
7%
10 Keegan Murray SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
48%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 27.1 3.3 6.6
2 Karl-Anthony Towns NY 26.0 13.8 4.3
3 DeMar DeRozan SAC 24.4 4.2 3.5
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC 23.7 5.4 6.4
5 Malik Monk SAC 23.4 3.8 7.2
6 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.7 15.3 8.4
7 Mikal Bridges NY 16.5 3.1 2.9
8 OG Anunoby NY 14.7 4.6 2.2
9 Josh Hart NY 13.7 11.7 5.8
10 Keegan Murray SAC 11.4 6.1 1.4
11 Keon Ellis SAC 10.8 3.1 1.8
12 Trey Lyles SAC 7.6 5.7 1.3
13 Cameron Payne NY 6.7 1.3 1.6
14 Miles McBride NY 6.1 2.0 2.1
15 Kevin Huerter SAC 5.4 1.7 1.1
16 Precious Achiuwa NY 5.2 4.1 0.9
17 Doug McDermott SAC 4.6 1.0 0.6
18 Devin Carter SAC 4.3 2.7 1.2
19 Mason Jones SAC 3.2 1.9 1.3
20 Alex Len SAC 3.1 2.8 1.0
21 Landry Shamet NY 2.6 1.1 0.5
22 Jae Crowder SAC 2.5 1.5 0.4
23 Jericho Sims NY 2.2 3.0 0.5
24 Matt Ryan NY 2.1 0.6 0.4
25 Jordan McLaughlin SAC 1.7 0.6 0.6
26 Jacob Toppin NY 1.4 0.9 0.3
27 Tyler Kolek NY 1.4 0.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.