NBA games

HOU @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
135–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU33353334135
CLE27273047131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home CLE
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 36 26 3 4
Alperen Sengun S 33 26 8 3
Amen Thompson S 41 23 14 10
Fred VanVleet S 38 20 3 6
Steven Adams 15 14 4 2
Dillon Brooks S 33 13 6 0
Jae'Sean Tate 12 7 3 0
Tari Eason 22 4 3 0
Cam Whitmore 10 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 36 39 3 9
Donovan Mitchell S 37 33 4 7
Georges Niang 29 21 4 1
Max Strus S 35 14 9 3
Jarrett Allen S 29 8 5 2
Evan Mobley S 29 7 8 1
Ty Jerome 18 6 4 3
Sam Merrill 17 3 2 2
Tristan Thompson 5 0 0 0
Craig Porter Jr. 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:49 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 21-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
13%
2 Alperen Sengun HOU
11%
3 Amen Thompson HOU
10%
4 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
5 Evan Mobley CLE
9%
6 Darius Garland CLE
8%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
8 Jalen Green HOU
7%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
7%
10 Fred VanVleet HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
30%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Green HOU 25.3 4.4 4.0
2 Darius Garland CLE 24.6 2.8 6.6
3 Donovan Mitchell CLE 22.9 4.2 4.4
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.3 10.6 5.4
5 Evan Mobley CLE 18.3 7.5 3.0
6 Amen Thompson HOU 17.1 10.4 4.1
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.9 3.2 6.0
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 15.4 10.0 2.3
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.2 5.1 1.6
10 Ty Jerome CLE 12.0 3.1 2.8
11 Cam Whitmore HOU 11.9 4.4 1.6
12 Tari Eason HOU 11.0 5.6 1.5
13 Dillon Brooks HOU 9.8 3.0 1.9
14 Max Strus CLE 9.2 3.3 2.8
15 Georges Niang CLE 7.5 3.0 1.4
16 Sam Merrill CLE 5.2 1.6 1.3
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 4.9 2.7 1.1
18 Steven Adams HOU 4.1 6.2 0.9
19 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.9 1.3 0.8
20 Jeff Green HOU 3.8 1.2 0.4
21 Jaylon Tyson CLE 3.2 1.9 0.7
22 Nate Williams HOU 2.8 0.8 0.5
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 2.5 3.2 0.9
24 Reed Sheppard HOU 2.4 1.7 0.6
25 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 2.0 0.7 0.5
26 Jock Landale HOU 1.8 1.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.