NBA games

TOR @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
117–94
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR22333131117
ATL2721222494

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ATL
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 32 24 12 7
RJ Barrett S 30 23 8 4
Chris Boucher 21 23 5 0
Jakob Poeltl S 27 9 9 3
Bruce Brown 27 8 5 2
Davion Mitchell S 26 8 2 4
Ja'Kobe Walter 16 7 3 3
Gradey Dick S 14 6 1 2
Jamal Shead 22 5 0 6
Orlando Robinson 21 4 6 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Vit Krejci S 35 20 2 7
Onyeka Okongwu S 29 19 8 5
Trae Young S 38 16 4 4
Dyson Daniels S 34 13 6 6
Clint Capela 14 5 4 0
Daeqwon Plowden 7 5 1 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 4 6 2
Larry Nance Jr. S 20 4 4 1
David Roddy 7 4 3 1
Garrison Mathews 25 3 4 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Trae Young · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Trae Young makes 3-foot two point shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jakob Poeltl TOR
13%
2 Dyson Daniels ATL
12%
3 Trae Young ATL
12%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
5 RJ Barrett TOR
11%
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL
9%
7 Gradey Dick TOR
8%
8 Zaccharie Risacher ATL
8%
9 Vit Krejci ATL
8%
10 Davion Mitchell TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
24%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 25.4 3.4 10.7
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.9 7.5 5.9
3 RJ Barrett TOR 20.1 6.1 5.2
4 Dyson Daniels ATL 17.6 5.5 3.9
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR 13.9 9.2 2.9
6 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 13.3 10.2 3.0
7 Gradey Dick TOR 12.0 2.8 2.1
8 Vit Krejci ATL 11.8 3.3 3.3
9 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 9.4 2.0 2.0
10 Zaccharie Risacher ATL 9.4 3.2 1.3
11 Clint Capela ATL 9.0 8.1 1.1
12 Bruce Brown TOR 8.4 3.6 1.6
13 Chris Boucher TOR 8.0 4.0 0.8
14 Larry Nance Jr. ATL 7.3 4.1 1.5
15 Davion Mitchell TOR 6.7 1.9 3.7
16 Kelly Olynyk TOR 6.7 2.6 2.3
17 Jamal Shead TOR 6.6 1.4 3.0
18 Garrison Mathews ATL 6.0 2.4 1.3
19 Daeqwon Plowden ATL 5.4 2.5 0.6
20 Ja'Kobe Walter TOR 4.8 1.6 1.0
21 David Roddy ATL 4.4 2.3 1.0
22 Dominick Barlow ATL 2.9 1.3 0.5
23 Orlando Robinson TOR 2.1 1.3 0.7
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 0.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.