NBA games

DET @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
113–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET30232832113
ORL18362542121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home ORL
37% 63%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 35 5 11
Malik Beasley 30 18 5 2
Ausar Thompson S 30 16 5 1
Ronald Holland II 16 13 4 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. S 33 13 2 2
Jalen Duren S 32 10 8 1
Isaiah Stewart 16 4 2 0
Tobias Harris S 17 2 7 2
Marcus Sasser 10 2 0 1
Simone Fontecchio 17 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 40 32 9 7
Franz Wagner S 30 32 4 7
Jonathan Isaac 20 14 5 0
Wendell Carter Jr. S 32 11 11 3
Jalen Suggs S 16 8 2 3
Cole Anthony 19 7 3 0
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 7 2 0
Tristan da Silva 26 5 4 0
Anthony Black 19 5 0 2
Jett Howard 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
4 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
8%
6 Cole Anthony ORL
8%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
7%
8 Tobias Harris DET
7%
9 Anthony Black ORL
7%
10 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 29.9 6.2 8.8
2 Franz Wagner ORL 27.1 5.9 6.5
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 25.2 8.0 5.2
4 Jalen Suggs ORL 17.9 4.3 3.5
5 Cole Anthony ORL 16.6 4.7 4.1
6 Malik Beasley DET 14.7 2.6 1.9
7 Tobias Harris DET 13.6 5.3 3.0
8 Tim Hardaway Jr. DET 12.7 2.8 1.6
9 Anthony Black ORL 12.7 3.3 3.5
10 Jalen Duren DET 12.6 10.5 2.3
11 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 11.4 6.6 2.5
12 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ORL 10.4 2.2 2.0
13 Ausar Thompson DET 9.1 5.2 1.6
14 Tristan da Silva ORL 8.8 5.2 1.8
15 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.6 5.6 0.9
16 Simone Fontecchio DET 6.3 2.9 1.1
17 Marcus Sasser DET 6.3 1.8 2.2
18 Jett Howard ORL 6.2 1.6 1.1
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 6.2 2.0 1.2
20 Trevelin Queen ORL 5.9 2.6 1.7
21 Ronald Holland II DET 5.8 2.3 1.1
22 Isaiah Stewart DET 5.6 6.1 1.5
23 Paul Reed DET 4.1 2.8 1.2
24 Cory Joseph ORL 3.5 1.1 1.1
25 Wendell Moore Jr. DET 2.2 1.4 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.