NBA games

NO @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
92123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO2322232492
CHA31323030123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home CHA
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 26 28 11 2
Trey Murphy III S 37 16 4 5
Jordan Hawkins S 39 14 4 1
Yves Missi S 19 12 8 0
CJ McCollum S 23 9 2 3
Javonte Green 24 7 3 2
Jose Alvarado 32 6 1 5
Karlo Matkovic 6 0 1 0
Antonio Reeves 12 0 0 1
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 11 0 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 30 25 5 7
Miles Bridges S 28 22 6 3
Seth Curry 19 16 4 2
Josh Green S 24 13 2 1
Vasilije Micic 24 11 2 4
Moussa Diabate 29 9 13 3
Josh Okogie 20 7 4 2
Taj Gibson S 12 6 3 2
DaQuan Jeffries 27 6 7 3
Nick Smith Jr. S 23 5 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Miles Bridges · Layup (2 pts) · 10:35 Q1
"Miles Bridges makes tip shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
12%
2 Trey Murphy III NO
12%
3 Miles Bridges CHA
10%
4 Yves Missi NO
8%
5 CJ McCollum NO
8%
6 LaMelo Ball CHA
8%
7 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO
7%
8 Vasilije Micic CHA
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Josh Green CHA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
42%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LaMelo Ball CHA 26.2 5.6 8.2
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.7 8.5 5.2
3 Trey Murphy III NO 23.3 5.6 4.1
4 Miles Bridges CHA 22.3 7.3 5.1
5 CJ McCollum NO 21.1 3.7 3.6
6 Grant Williams CHA 12.4 6.3 2.2
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.6 1.9 1.1
8 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 9.3 3.1 2.3
9 Yves Missi NO 9.0 6.8 1.6
10 Herbert Jones NO 8.2 3.0 3.6
11 Josh Green CHA 7.9 3.7 1.4
12 Jose Alvarado NO 7.8 1.9 3.4
13 Seth Curry CHA 6.8 1.8 1.1
14 Javonte Green NO 6.7 4.0 1.3
15 Daniel Theis NO 6.6 5.6 1.7
16 DaQuan Jeffries CHA 6.6 3.0 0.8
17 Vasilije Micic CHA 6.3 2.1 3.0
18 Josh Okogie CHA 6.1 3.5 1.0
19 Isaiah Wong CHA 5.6 2.0 1.5
20 Moussa Diabate CHA 5.3 4.2 0.7
21 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.5 4.4 1.6
22 Antonio Reeves NO 3.7 0.9 0.6
23 Karlo Matkovic NO 2.4 2.2 0.5
24 Taj Gibson CHA 1.5 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.