NBA games

MIA @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
106–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA24292924106
BKN1732192997

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home BKN
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 25 1 8
Nikola Jovic 31 17 6 4
Bam Adebayo S 37 17 16 4
Terry Rozier 30 16 8 2
Duncan Robinson S 33 15 7 0
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 26 9 5 3
Kel'el Ware S 23 7 6 0
Pelle Larsson 5 0 0 0
Haywood Highsmith S 21 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 26 22 1 6
Keon Johnson S 37 22 1 4
Noah Clowney S 34 13 4 0
Nic Claxton S 26 13 5 2
Jalen Wilson S 36 12 9 8
Day'Ron Sharpe 16 7 3 0
Tyrese Martin 25 5 6 1
Tosan Evbuomwan 21 2 1 1
Ziaire Williams 20 1 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nic Claxton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Nic Claxton makes layup (Jalen Wilson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
8%
3 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
4 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
5 Ben Simmons BKN
7%
6 D'Angelo Russell BKN
7%
7 Ziaire Williams BKN
7%
8 Keon Johnson BKN
6%
9 Tyrese Martin BKN
6%
10 Kel'el Ware MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
20%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
22%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.0 5.7 5.6
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA 15.1 5.1 4.8
3 D'Angelo Russell BKN 13.9 3.2 7.3
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 13.7 9.8 3.7
5 Nikola Jovic MIA 13.7 4.4 4.7
6 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.2 5.4 4.2
7 Keon Johnson BKN 13.0 3.2 3.2
8 Kel'el Ware MIA 12.8 7.9 1.3
9 Terry Rozier MIA 12.3 4.3 3.4
10 Noah Clowney BKN 11.8 4.4 1.6
11 Tyrese Martin BKN 11.3 4.7 2.6
12 Ziaire Williams BKN 11.1 4.9 2.1
13 Tosan Evbuomwan BKN 10.9 4.6 1.8
14 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.4 2.7 3.5
15 Jalen Wilson BKN 10.4 3.6 2.0
16 Ben Simmons BKN 9.9 4.9 7.7
17 Nic Claxton BKN 9.8 8.1 1.9
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 9.0 6.9 1.9
19 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.5 3.3 1.6
20 Josh Richardson MIA 5.2 1.7 1.5
21 Reece Beekman BKN 4.8 1.6 1.8
22 Alec Burks MIA 4.3 1.5 0.9
23 Dariq Whitehead BKN 4.2 1.5 0.7
24 Josh Christopher MIA 4.1 1.4 1.2
25 Kevin Love MIA 3.7 2.1 0.9
26 Pelle Larsson MIA 3.0 1.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.